Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Fluctuating widely Sunday night up to 3947.50 didn't gap up, making the pullback day likely to repeat Monday morning. Its 3913.00 low was shallower than Friday, but more aggressive and longer lasting, and more in-line with the sequence that was established by Thursday. Its gap-and-pause setup also looked for the rally to resume, and Monday afternoon's breakout to new highs tested 3960.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Narrowing flat-to-higher ranging has probed new highs up to 3964.00. Just enough complexity qualifies it as a Globex extreme which requires intraday retest, at least eventually. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Monday's recovery originated before noon, so its sponsorship can be considered as strong-handed. The rally's probe above Thursday's highs was isolated to Monday's last 15 minutes, so correcting it wouldn't be surprising. Not surprising, but also not required, so extending higher would be likelier if Tuesday's first 15 minutes can maintain a gap up. Trending up this morning would still be vulnerable to backing-and-filling or to trending back down this afternoon, but still not required. Regardless of its timing, backing-and-filling would find support at 3933.00, then an attraction from yesterday's oversold RSIs at 3913.00 low. That or anything lower probably requires an artificial catalyst like a headline to even consider threatening 3893.00-3898.00. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Still holding up. Gapping up 6 points to 3963.25 dipped only to touch the 3959.75 proxy gap. Breaking higher through the first 15 minutes extended to attack 3968.50. Maintaining a gap up through the first 15 minutes fills the void of yesterday's rally not having gained traction for its efforts. So now this morning's bias window is likely to trend up. The 3961.75 bias-up signal triggered, so its 3974.75 bias-up target is in-play. That begins the room for noise under the rally's longstanding 3977.00 objective. Absent an artificial catalyst like a headline, extending higher is likely this morning. A rogue dip could test 3958.50 without yet even threatening a deeper correction. Trending up into the noon hour could start to form another gap-and-pause setup, which we'll assess then for its likely paths.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL BIAS-UP: above 3968.50 signal would target 3977.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3955.50 signal would target 3945.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Mostly holding up. This morning's attack on 3971.00 is currently the high. The bias window didn't trend up, it only continued to maintain the gap up. The noon hour dipped to 3952.50 but recovered up to 3966.00. That was enough to avoid triggering bias-down, but trending up during the no-bias window would have to ignore its resistance at the 3968.50 bias-up signal. Trending up prematurely as no-bias trending is possible, but trending up after the bias window begins lapsing would be more credible for extending higher. Meanwhile, pullbacks have room down to 3956.00.

Already eking 6 points higher overnight had probed new highs up to 3966.00, which was extended to attack 3971.00 through the open. The balance of the morning held up until it was no longer required, then slid through the afternoon bias window down to 3943.00. Its reaction up to 3952.50 was mostly maintained to close largely unchanged. Anxiousness ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting was still too far away to be blamed for Tuesday's relatively narrow intraday range. Expiration week probably had more influence, with Tuesday being one of the week's more liquid opportunities for big money position jockeying. However much Monday's last-minute surge was influential, its extreme optimism was fully retraced at Tuesday's low. A newly created attraction was left outstanding above at the morning's 3974.75 bias-up target. Its test can be neutralized overnight, but then likely replaced by another Globex trend extreme that would require intraday retest. Wednesday's FOMC events tend to offer the most opportunistic trading environment of the month. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET BIAS-UP: above 3965.00 signal would target 3975.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3947.50 signal would target 3937.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals.