Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 03-18-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's weaker open wasn't absorbed immediately, requiring a 7-point post-open dip to 2012.00 before proving sellers were losing control. The market caught on to that fact quickly, trending up relentlessly through the afternoon's bias environment exit to attack 2037.00. Backing-and-filling down to 2031.00-2031.00 left outstanding overbought RSIs remained at the high, and buyers gained no traction for the effort. But Wednesday's breakout was confirmed. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's late backing-and-filling was retracing the afternoon's no-bias trending that had originated from 2027.00 and 2028.50. Ranging choppily down finally touched 2027.00 after firming to 2034.00 through Europe's opens. The lower low has been more productive, reacting already back to yesterday's 2036.75 high, neutralizing its attraction above. If, then... Extending the rally this morning is unlikely without gapping up. Having the same limitation barely slowed Thursday's rally and didn't prevent it retaining the day's gains. Trading flat-to-lower this morning wouldn't prevent the afternoon from being influenced by the bullish WedEX, which only signals an upward bias. Triggering bias-down would threaten to invert WedEX to bearish if its target became "unfinished business." First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2028.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2027.00bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2036.75 would be likely to trigger the 2034.50 bias-up signal.

Even sluggish follow-through isn't preventing higher highs. Gapping up to and/or through yesterday's 2036.75 high was the only way to resume the rally this morning, since yesterday afternoon's buyers gained no traction for their efforts. A pre-open pullback to 2033.00 had recovered to open at 2036.75. The opening 15 minutes didn't extend higher but only ranged widely around the 2036.75 prior high. Nevertheless, a pullback to the 2034.50 bias-up signal was recovered to fresh highs at 2040.75. That satisfied the 2039.75 bias-up signal, without exceeding it through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Back under 2037.25  (being tested now) would be likely to retest the 2034.50 bias-up signal as support. The reaction down could extend into the noon hour. The pullback could test 2031.00 or the 2027.00 overnight low. A pullback is easier said than done. This is still a bias-up environment. Expiration's upside bias remains very much intact. And any downdraft's recovery remains likely by the afternoon's bullish WedEX.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2050.75 2041.00 ...would target 2057.00  2047.25 Bias-down: under  2043.25  2033.50 ...would target 2037.00  2027.25 Signal status: NO-BIASr FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Friday afternoon's drop was recovered entirely, and literally -- from the noon hour's 2040.00 exit down to a test of the afternoon's 2033.50 bias-down signal, and back up again. even the noon hour's 2041.75 high was touched. No higher highs were required since the bias environment wasn't exited above all prior timing windows. Even considering the bullish WedEX, and even considering that the bullish WedEX had been productive. So the balance of the session ranged narrowly around 2040.00 -- expiration dipping to 2036.50 is irrelevant for our purpsoses. The new trend high close fulfills the third higher close that was by confirming Wednesday's breakout. The new trend high close on a Friday now deserves a similar reward, that at least one more higher close develop before a durable decline could begin. An immediate pullback, possibly, but not a durable reversal down. Meanwhile, the bullish WedEX's influence on Monday should be aggressive. Its influence proved out Friday afternoon, so even if Monday's open were to gap down considerably, the morning should rally. Rallying to fresh highs without gapping up would be vulnerable to reversing down, since buyers didn't gain traction for their efforts -- and since some older "higher prior lows" are being probed that should get to slow the advance. REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. Also, chaRTroom will be available after Sunday night's Globex open. Not very long after, and you'll receive the usual Email Alert with its URL. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.