Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday morning's no-no-bias environment avoided triggering its 2719.00 bias-down signal, and surged through its 2725.25 bias-up signal to 2734.00. The no-bias trending was retraced before the FOMC news, which triggered a 12-point knee-jerk reaction up to 2744.00. Which triggered a 20-point collapse. Both within 5 minutes. Wide swings persisted as fresh lows were probed down to within ticks of the morning's 2712.25 bias-down target. A 21-point bounce was mostly retraced into the close down to 2714.25. Oversold RSIs at the low require a retest. Tuesday morning's "unfinished business below" at 2710.25 is outstanding, too. Overnight action's new info... So much for Wednesday's volatility. Right? Firming steadily into the Globex session recovered to test the lower-end of 2726.00-2727.00. Its reaction down attacked 2718.00 before trying to recover, but peaked at 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. Reacting down again greeted Europe's opens back at yesterday's late low. And then lower. And then a lot lower. Collapsing sharply lower finally bounced back up to 2707.50, what is this morning's bias-down target. A retest of the low down to 2696.00 reacted up to 2701.50, and ranged sideways at the lows. If, then... Attractions at yesterday's 2712.75 low and Tuesday morning's 2710.25 bias-down signal are neutralized. Isolating their tests to the overnight could have launched a multi-session recovery of the pullback from last week's highs. That's still possible, since tests of 2701.50 have been holding. Repeatedly. Recovering again in this setup all but requires opening back above yesterday's lows, if not also in positive territory and then holding above yesterday's lows. Trying, and failing, could prove even more bearish than not trying at all. And not holding the retest of Monday's lows would threaten to expose an air pocket not much further below. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2711.50 would at least be likelier to trigger the 2713.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2706.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2707.50 bias-down target which would then renew the bias-down signal.

Fresh pre-open lows lead circuitously to fresher post-open lows. The overnight dip attacking 2695.00 and consolidating around 2701.50 had broken lower to 2684.50 far before the open. An isolation setup became impossible. Alternatively, the open began tracking a path I had outlined during my live pre-open update in the chaRTroom -- blip-down, then reverse back up into a morning-long rally. Otherwise, sharply lower lows would be likely. The post-open blip-down barely touched 2680.00-2681.00 support before reversing back up. The opening 15 minutes of volatility got to 2693.00. Reacting down to attack 2684.00 was too deep, already signaling momentum had reversed down. And undoing the recovery template.

Until it didn't. And then until it did, again.

Another upleg nevertheless tested 2698.00. Despite coming after the last retracement, extending almost any higher would have reinstated the recovery template. But as if to compensate for the detour, those sharply lower lows came fast, sliding 25 points to 2672.50.

So long as 2680.00-2681.00 isn't recovered, the trend remains down. An important support will have been broken. A test of 2652.00-2653.00 would be all but required. Back above 2680.00-2681.00 could otherwise be the last opportunity to prevent trending down even deeper into and out of the weekend.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2674.00 2676.00 ...would target  2679.00  2681.00 Bias-down: under  2664.00 2666.00 ...would target  2657.00  2659.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Afternoon bounce, potential recovery. This morning's drop ultimately extended down to 2663.25. Oversold RSIs there will require its eventual retest. But that might be awhile. The noon hour bounced 24 points up to 2687.25. Which was actually the second and maximum target of a corrective bounce. Its reaction down to 2671.25 suggested the correction was done, and that new lows at 2652.00-2653.00 remained in-play. More so, tests of both bias-up parameters were on the verge of being rejected. Just rejecting a bias signal to trigger no-bias requires an offsetting test, but that's a morning setup only. In the afternoon, rejecting tests of both bias parameters still requires offsetting tests of the other two.

But oh, no.

Bias-up triggered late to avoid the bias setup. And it wasn't just recovered. The noon hour peak of its original test was recovered through 1:30 to mitigate the signal's lateness. That was 11 points higher, and could prove to be very effectual optimism.

Currently, 1-minute RSI is diverging negatively on a test and retest of 2691.25. Back under 2680.00-2681.00 -- preferably upon exiting the bias environment -- would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, there's potential for fresh session highs today. Closing above or below 2701.50 would then dictate the next leg.

Wednesday night's drop extended to fresh lows just in time to shut the door on a path higher for the open, the Isolation setup. Another path higher was formed by the open blipping down further only momentarily, but its reversal attempt failed. That door was shut, too. One more path higher has opened by fulfilling the next lower objectives at the three-week old 2652.00 low. A late collapse probed them down to 2642.00, then bounced to 2652.00 before the close. Probing it down to 2627.00-2628.00 and recovering -- overnight to form an Isolation setup, or intraday to get squeezed into the weekend -- would be the basis. Either setup is entirely possible and yet not often formed. Closing under 2652.00 again Friday would confirm the next lower objective in-play, a retest of the crash's lows at 2509-2511.00. Support along the way would likely be only temporary. Being a Friday, the morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour. So, almost literally, make or break.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2658.50 2659.75 ...would target  2666.50  2667.50 Bias-down: under  2639.75 2640.75 ...would target  2627.75  2629.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.