Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) PM Traction works in mysterious ways, and Monday's bullish setup ensured that Tuesday morning's 17-point dip would recover 22 points to fresh session highs at 3938.50. This also fully rewarded the first 15 minutes of uptrending that had triggered a bullish Relentless overnight trending setup. Rather than reward buyers for the pattern of recovering two big dips back above relevant levels, the pattern of big dips repeated first. Breaking under the morning's 3916.50 low as the afternoon bias window lapsed extended down to 3890.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Extremely narrow ranging only briefly probed the 3895.00 bias-down signal. That was before midnight, and the ranging narrowed to form a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern broke sharply higher at Europe's opens, surging to pierce the 3917.75 bias-up target. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Now we'll see whether the pattern of big downs will repeat its other pattern of big recoveries. Last night's surge hasn't yet recovered a relevant level, and it is about to be challenged by yesterday afternoon's bearish PM Traction influence. The overnight rally creates room to expend selling pressure before it damages the chart by breaking too deeply under yesterday's low, so that an afternoon recovery's path remains credible. Otherwise, dropping too deeply this morning and/or still not repeating yesterday's recovery pattern would further suggest something much more bearish is forming. We discussed last Saturday the growing likelihood of a larger downleg forming, and that was before testing the rally's 3977.00 objective overnight. Its intraday test would be optimal, because it would be usual, but it might be avoided if not already underway this afternoon or tomorrow morning. Buyers must take control sooner rather than later, or sellers will fill the vacuum. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Bearish PM Traction failing. The bias-up target was tested and retested before dipping back down to the 3907.50 bias-up signal. The dip from 3920.50 down to 3907.50 coincided with the PM Traction's bearish influence, and probed an inflection point. Any lower any later could have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. Big rewards awaited sellers. Perhaps it was just a negative knee-jerk reaction to Powell and Yellen starting their day-2 of Congressional testimony. But the bias-up signal held its recovery. Probing above the open's 3924.00 high is now testing 3931.50. A substantial reward presumably awaits buyers for absorbing yet another consecutive big drawdown. Third time isn't necessarily a charm, but forcing the failure of a bearish PM Traction suggests that its buyers are very strong-handed. If this degree of counter-trend sponsorship can't deliver a rally, then the market will collectively throw its towel into the resulting void.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET BIAS-UP: above 3927.50 signal would target 3935.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3915.50 signal would target 3905.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

No morning dip... Afternoon rally? This morning's 3931.50 high was already slipping into the noon hour. And it resumed slipping coming out of the noon hour, down to 3904.00. The bias-down target was still being overlapped at 1:20, so no lower objective is in-play. That doesn't prevent a new sell signal from extending down anyway. Back under 3906.50 would start to signal the drop extending. Currently a bounce is attacking the 3915.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Even the 3904.00 low is still well into positive territory. Exiting the bias window at 2:30 around its 3915.50 bias-up signal would be well-positioned to rally into the close.  

Wednesday's 15-point gap up to 3914.00 ranged widely through the open between 3907.00-3924.00, and eventually extended up to 3931.50 to the morning bias window's high. Earlier lows were tested, retested, and re-retested down tot 3903.50 through the afternoon bias window. Its lapse coincided with a collapse down to 3877.50. Price action was exclusively in positive territory Wednesday until after exiting the 3:20 proxy window. Negative territory was only probed late, but it did define the close. And it formed another bearish PM Traction setup. Sellers also gained traction Tuesday afternoon, and extended down into the close. Tuesday's sellers failed to influence the next morning's bias window, but Thursday morning's bias window will get a benefit of the doubt for trending down. The most defining market influence is the ongoing patterns of big drawdown, and of complete recoveries. Wednesday afternoon's slide is the fourth big drawdown in two consecutive sessions. Will the pattern of complete recovery also repeat? At some point, no -- one or the other loses sponsorship as each reversal is absorbed. And Wednesday's slide is likely to extend without either gapping up enough Thursday or else holding a test of Friday's 3875.00 low. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET BIAS-UP: above 3888.00 signal would target 3898.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3873.00 signal would target 3859.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.