Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's late collapse down to 2454.00 had originated so late that its correction or retracement was likely. That didn't prevent extending down overnight to greet the record-setting Jobless Claims at 2402.00. Snapping up extended sharply through Thursday's first hour to probe Wednesday's high by 12 points up to 2573.00. Extending through the noon hour up to 2591.00 only ranged sideways until a last-minute MOC surge attacked 2626.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) No different than Wednesday's late collapse, Thursday's last-minute surge from 2566.00 originated so late that its correction or retracement was likely. Bouncing to slightly higher highs at 2634.50 was soon reversed down, eventually attacking Thursday afternoon's low to within 5-1/2 points at 2550.00. Reacting up to 2601.00 has reversed down again to actually probe the afternoon's low by 5 points. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Already having neutralized yesterday's last-minute surge, probing yesterday's last-minute 2626.00 high through today's open could extend the rally. That traction would likely be rewarded by another higher high intraday since the surge was breakout in the trend's direction. Friday Factors could exacerbate that bullish setup, and become a short-squeeze... Friday Factors work in either direction, including the reward for gaining downside traction. And 1-2 bearish setups are currently threatened. The first would simply yesterday's last-minute surge being a rubber band stretch that the open snaps back down. The second bearish setup would gap down under yesterday 2545.00 afternoon's low to form a "session-long decline"... The burden of proof is on buyers since yesterday's fresh recover close fulfilled the minimum requirement of Tuesday's confirmed breakout. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2557.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2566.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2577.00 would be likely at least to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2590.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Choppy, sloppy post-open, but its break is maintained. The opening thrust tested BOTH of yesterday's bias environment lows, 2536.00 and 2545.00. And both maintained their breaks through the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45. The "session-long decline" setup has triggered. Recovering the prior lows through 10:00 could have invalidated the setup, but didn't. Now it can only be productive, or fail. Entering or exiting the noon hour back above 2536.00 and 2545.00 would suggest the setup is failing. Meanwhile, being productive means each timing window probes under its prior timing window's low. All but one window, usually. So far, that seems to be this morning's bias environment. The open's 2523.50 and 2505.25 lows have yet to be probed. Not probing lower during this window would mean that all subsequent timing windows do probe lower lows. Delaying the bearish setup's influence past this morning's choppy, sloppy action should make this afternoon's bearish influence much more obvious. Otherwise, any suggestion of the setup failing would open the door to an afternoon rally.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2546.75 2533.25 ...would target 2566.00 2552.00 Bias-down: under 2526.75 2513.25 ...would target 2510.50 2496.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Session-long decline setup fails. Having trended up into yesterday's close, gapping down under both of yesterday's bias environment lows formed a "session-long decline." The setup triggered by maintaining the gap down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. But the opening thrust still stands as the session low. It's too late to invalidate the setup, or for its resolution to be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. It has simply failed, for now letting two timing windows elapse without yet probing their prior timing window's low. Again, the alternative does not default to a rally. Trending up further is possible, but not required. Still ranging this deeply in negative territory this late in the day isn't any likelier to trend back up. And this afternoon's bias-up signal already fulfilled and now probed its bias-up target. Trending back down is possible, but also not required. There's plenty of room for downside, even without probing fresh session lows. But I wouldn't consider probing fresh session lows as related to the open's bearish setup.

After trending down throughout the overnight Globex session, the open's session-long decline setup both formed AND triggered. But wasn't productive, and missing the first two opportunities to probe a prior timing window's low invalidated it That didn't default into a rally. Reacting up from the open's 2505.25 low to the 2509.00 ranged choppily and sloppily through the noon hour. And although the afternoon's bias-up extended to 2605.00, the last half-hour plunged back down to 2516.00. Overbought RSIs at Friday's 2605.00 high require a retest. Not so much as to prevent extending down without delay. Friday afternoon is the week's least predictive window, and the setup formed while trapped session-long in negative territory. But almost any initial recovery attempt would be likely to retest the 2605.00 high's overbought RSIs. Ultimately, Friday was an "inside day," so it has no reliable predictive value. Thursday fulfilled the minimum requirement of Tuesday's confirmed breakout, but Friday didn't invalidate the corrective bounce underway. We'll describe the likelier paths higher or lower for Sunday and Monday at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2562.00 2549.00 ...would target 2583.50 2570.50 Bias-down: under 2517.50 2504.50 ...would target 2490.00 2477.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.