Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 04-09-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
For the second consecutive session Wednesday, the prior day''s late drop was retraced entirely by an opening surge. Also, retracing that immediate recovery was also recovered, again. And once again, despite absorbing two sell-offs, prior highs were not probed -- the range persists. No unfinished business was left outstanding, and neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts.

Overnight action''s new info...
Post-close earnings misses from AA and BBBY didn''t prevent Initially firming a couple of points to 2078.00. But sliding from there eventually reached 2073.00. After firming into Europe''s opens, the decline resumed with a steeper slide to 2067.25. The last several hours have retraced it all back up to 2077.50.

If, then...
Absorbing dips is potentially constructive. Potentially. Waiting too long before exploiting that potential can become vulnerable to yet another dip gaining traction. Delaying the latest dip this time until overnight is being met by accelerating its recovery to precede the open. Potential for resuming the rally remains alive, and the only proof more constructive than last night''s round trip would be to actually resume the uptrend. The vulnerability to another dip gaining traction remains alive, too, especially if there''s any further delay to resuming the rally after recovering last night''s dip.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2077.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2071.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2082.50 would be likely to trigger the 2081.25 bias-up signal.

Post-open swings becoming more violent.

Support, meet resistance. The pre-pullback held within 1 tick of its 2071.25 limit and the open surged to test this morning''s 2081.25 bias-up signal. Taht was a little too quick, and its reaction down fell back down to the 2072.75 opening print. Resistance, meet support.

A shallower 5-1/2 point bounce was quickly retraced. And now that bounce is trying to resume. Wait, no, now it''s retesting 2073.50 support.

Meanwhile, the clock keeps ticking. And holding the 2081.25 bias-up signal''s test through 10:15 has put into play a test of the 2066.00 2071.50 bias-down signal. Recovering 2081.25 through 10:30 would invalidate whatever was signaled at 10:15 -- invalidating the bias signals from containing the morning''s price action.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2084.50
2077.50
...would target 2090.25
2083.25
Bias-down: under 2073.00
2066.00
...would target 2068.00
2061.00
Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday night''s slide into Thursday''s gap down tested uptrending support at 1.0750. It wasn''t acknowledged as price slid lower to 1.0650, fulfilling the minimum third lower close outstanding from the confirmed breakout coming out of March. Having refueled sellers with the high''s retest, extending lower to 1.0590 before bouncing would not be surprising.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback extended lower Wednesday night and Thursday morning, testing the original 1194.00 buy signal, which was still being tested through the afternoon. There is no bullish excuse for further delaying the rally''s resumption, which should be aggressive, and triggered as low as 1205.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday''s drop under the original 16.45-16.60 pullback limit wasn''t rejected immediately Thursday, and instead probed lower, potentially targeting 16.05.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Any rejection of Wednesday''s return to 164-30 resistance had to be done aggressively if it were to be credible. Thursday''s dip back to the 163-18 low -- and then through it after a disappointing 30-year auction -- did extend down at a steeper pace that easily qualifies the characterization. The bearish pattern remains on-track.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday''s drop may be likely to recover and resume the rally, but it was too sizable to try recovering too quickly. In fact, Wednesday night''s bounce to 51.90 fell back to 50.60, as did a slightly higher high to 52.05 intraday. It''s still premature to resume rallying, but a slightly lower low Friday morning could be compelling for long-entry before the weekend''s geopolitical risk premium is added.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s EIA report wasn''t being greeted from a position of strength, but it wasn''t necessarily weakness. In either case, the reaction did probe fresh lows, and close lower. There is no active signal.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2096.00
2089.00
...would target 2102.00
2095.00
Bias-down: under 2086.25
2079.25
...would target 2081.75
2074.75
Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.