Pre-Open Market Signals - 6:53 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday's gap up to 2390.75 resistance only probed 1 point higher momentarily.. But that did create room to expend selling pressure before it could damage the recovery's chart. In fact, the morning was spent chipping away at 2386.00 support. Sellers apparently threw in the proverbial towel, because the noon hour firmed, and the bias environment returned to the open's high. And being a Friday afternoon, exiting the bias environment at a session extreme had breakout written all over it. Indeed. Optimism ahead of the weekend's French vote leveraged the Friday Factors, surging 7-8 points. The cash session close equated to 2396.00, under March's high, and then futures extended to new highs at 2399.00. Overnight action's new info... The French vote's unsurprising results produced an unsurprising reaction as the Globex open gapped up to 2402.50 and attacked 2404.00. Maybe a little surprising in its brevity. The spike began reversing down immediately, retracing Friday's futures close almost immediately, and Friday's cash session close before 90 minutes. The reaction down extended to touch 2392.25, which happens to be this morning's bias-down signal. A 4-point bounce was retraced, and now a 5-point bounce is testing 2397.00. If, then... We expected the vote's reaction to be a brief relief rally, and then to reverse down. But before reversing down too significantly, the retest of March's 2397.25 high was likely to visit 2405.00, if not also 2415.00. The Euro's underperformance suggests a lot of selling is being diverted there, barely having pierced its 1.1025 target before reversing down sharply to attack 1.0955. S&Ps may yet probe fresh highs again, and reverse down again, from however high. But not opening in rally mode -- preferably already recovering pre-open  -- could extend down sharply into the afternoon. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2391.00 would be likely to trigger the 2392.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2396.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Monday it's time for Monday's Morning Market or interesting you letter with the Euro actually the euro the French election results you can see right here gapping up spiking immediately satisfying the 11025 objective outstanding that was attacked on Friday big reaction down really quickly Big Bounce bigger reaction down eventually they were really dipping in here this is huge session that's just overnight so I need it very far down back into a complex ascending triangle that developed off of the prior I very often and Peak at the same time also immediately but only momentarily before reversing back down remember first of all Fridays close post post close was 2399 eaters actually got up to Futures close actually got up to 98th and then the gas station close equated to 96 so the immediate Gap up and everything about the Futures clothes were traced almost immediately 96 was retraced eventually within barely within 90 minutes where are the market estranged sideways dipping a little deeper ahead of Europe's opens but the bottom is it dropped out of the Earth's open so maybe we'll have another shot at this and you going to stop 5 to extort and 2405 2405 which is this morning by step Target bicyclist 9950 the bias down signal is 9225 that was the low so there's a good reason to anticipate the potential for balancing anyway so does it have to bounce now it doesn't have to bounce as an after repeat that is the overnight Sunday night to meet reaction to the French elections doesn't have to repeat it before reversing down substantially and by the way the does repeat it it's going to be difficult to reverse down substantially these aren't overly optimistic buyers that are going to bed the market back up to where it reversed down sharply at Sunday night open they're going to be better rewarded at least to 2405 if not I'm going little bit higher for a little bit longer even food today possibly so even though the overnight did fulfill that reverses down expectation from the Fresh time it came prematurely so it may actually be repeated there's a greater chance of it being repeated Post open and if it is it probably doesn't reversed and not a terribly until this afternoon at the latest and even then probably tomorrow at the earliest let's see if not if we don't get this going to be looking like it's going to be so anyways 21 is alright back in the truck with the open so get here is the Euro that's a different chart not the cleaned-up one that I've been showing all night there's a 101 1025 Target and now the reaction down and a little prayer has some potential for at least the Euro reversal too slow if not reverse cuz that affecting other markets nothing really on the Looney which doesn't have any unfinished business below and is Freida Riley and really it's Freedom the rally is more or hindered by any Clarity on an app that talks that on the pattern the pound still having still having a higher close at Sea ending when we heard Friday closed still overlapping the prior High the confirmation of the Breakout so I don't really like to take those seriously I would like to see at least an intraday Pro officially the new high close is done but for going out while still overlapping the prior High some intraday High trending higher the pound tripping over to our probing the hiring today in closing negative that could be a cell signal are considered a cell signal for the pad and then the Aussie no real signal down here gold likes the news but that's not really imagined anything other than flipping back to the upper end of this Trail Range 12 will not turn range of the target range for 28 to 12:36 that wasn't rejected immediately on Friday after meeting Thursday so that makes the next order 1211 like that and then silver original  .

Day Trading Opening Trends - 11:06 AM

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Plus ca change, plus la meme chose. Plus ca change, plus la meme chose. Reversed, I know. As it should be, with a noN-bias. The bias-down signal was touched overnight, but the open bounced up to Friday's cash and futures session closes at 2396.00 and 2397.75. Then plunged to touch the 2392.25 bias-down signal. Bias-down's grace period was invoked, but was still being tested at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. The bias-down target isn't in-play. Neither is an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. Also, there's no constraint for the bias-down signal to define the morning's lows.

And now having probed a fresh low down to 2391.25, the next lower attraction is 2388.00. The 2387.00 bias-down target doesn't require being tested due to the bias-down signal's very late break.

Being a noN-bias environment, back above the 2394.00 area would be credible for extending. Sunday night's high is still likely at some point to be probed. Delaying the rejection of an essentially flat open undermines the sponsorship behind the late selling. And a lot of support still lies at Friday's mid-day "lower prior highs."

Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:59 AM

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MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2399.00 2395.00 ...would target  2405.25  2401.25 Bias-down: under  2393.75  2389.75 ...would target 2388.25  2384.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 1:25 PM

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Still no signs of capitulation. This morning's noN-bias environment extended down to 2389.75 until the bias environment began lapsing. The trend has since reversed up, attacking the 2395.00 bias-up signal. The signal was actually touched  minutes too soon to invoke the grace period. Exceeding 2395.00 through 1:30 would at least invalidate the afternoon's no-bias signal. Otherwise, 2395.00 should define the bias environment's upper-end. Probing above it is possible, albeit doomed to failure for being "no-bias trending." Backing-and-filling for an hour would be likelier, perhaps testing this morning's low down to 2388.75. Extending higher later remains possible, if not likely. Probing Sunday night's high will continue to be the likely resolution unless this afternoon were to give this morning's decline the credibility that it currently lacks.

Day Trading Market Wrap - 4:32 PM

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Monday morning's drop was basically an extension of the overnight reaction to having blipped-up Sunday night, which Monday's opening blip-up essentially duplicated. Each was briefer and shallower, despite being in position to attract much wider sponsorship. Sellers weren't taking the bait. Sellers also failed to trigger the morning's bias-down. Not for lack of proximity, since noN-bias triggered. Optimism remains alive, if not altogether alive and kicking. The pattern offers an opportunity to extend down anyway during the afternoon bias environment. It wasn't done, while price hovered at the afternoon's high, which is restrained optimism. Recovering to retest Sunday night's high remains likely. But a better bottom than Monday's low will be sought at slightly lower levels, if not already underway Tuesday morning. Extending higher overnight would be credible for persisting through the morning. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.


Tomorrow's Day Trading Bias Levels - 5:55 PM

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TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2400.50 2396.50 ...would target  2407.00  2403.00 Bias-down: under  2393.00  2389.00 ...would target 2387.50  2383.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.