Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Probing overnight under Monday's 2662.50 low by 4 points was largely repeated through Tuesday's open. But Monday afternoon's slide didn't resume, and bias down didn't trigger. Wash, rinse, repeat. The morning's bounce up to 2674.25 was retraced to fresh lows during the noon hour. But the afternoon's bias-down signal didn't trigger, either. Wash, rinse, repeat, again. A shallower bounce to 2669.50 was reversed to session lows at 2652.25, and -- in-line with the session's tradition -- also bounced. Monday's 2670.00 close was being tested at the close to essentially finish the session unchanged. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday's last bounce was extended into Globex to probe 3 points above Monday's 2670.00 close. Its reaction down to 2666.50 was narrowly consolidated, and almost entirely recovered to test 2672.00. A 3-point dip ahead of Europe's opens (defensive posturing) was recovered back up to and through the earlier high -- first a little, and then a lot, extending to 2684.50. Its reaction is now testing 2681.00 as support. If, then... Recovering from several intraday dips can form accumulation. That's the basis for a bottom, but the setup isn't complete until triggered. Tuesday's recoveries stopped short of producing a trigger, including the close which was not above a prior high or resistance. But gapping up Wednesday can serve as a proxy for that role. Meanwhile, even the most bearish scenario did not preclude retesting Monday's highs up to 2684.25. Now Wednesday's open is indicated to gap up  Having tested 2684.25 overnight, holding its retest through the open could launch a reversal down. Tuesday's accumulative behavior can be more bullish only by attracting reinforcements, which is difficult when gapping up to resistance. Extending higher through the open would suggest that reinforcements had arrived, introducing potential to 2696.75. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2684.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2681.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2693.00. Exiting the open above 2677.00 would at least be likely to trigger the 2674.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Pre-open pullback holds resistance... and support. Reacting down from the overnight test of 2684.25 isn't surprising, since it's the next higher objective, or the room for noise above 2674.00 and 2681.00. Reacting back down to 2677.00 isn't surprising either, since it's the open's preliminary level.

Surprising, or unusual, is that the first hour has essentially produced six 5-6 point swings, each overlapping 2677.00 and the 2681.00 bias-up target -- three of the swings during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And still no resolution.

The 2674.00 bias-up signal did trigger. But its 2681.00 bias-up target is already met. Often. It's still a bias-up environment that could break higher anyway. But meanwhile fresh lows should be limited to testing 2674.00 as support during this window.

I had assumed during the Market Tour that hesitating to test 2684.25 would at least reflect restrained optimism, potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. New information arrived later, that the reaction down was back under Monday's 2681.50 prior high. Monday's prior high, not yesterday, but the Isolation setup still forms by remaining under the prior high. So, the opening range has formed a position of weakness. It's able to launch a probe of fresh highs, e.g. 2684.25. But from a position of weakness that would be doomed failure. And there's no "unfinished business above," so a break lower is possible at any time.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2683.50 2681.75 ...would target  2690.00  2688.25 Bias-down: under  2672.75  2671.00 ...would target  2664.75  2663.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour rally extending sharply higher. The first hour's multiple wide swings weren't offering much information to its ultimate resolution, or it was offering plenty of contradictory information. But we knew its ultimate resolution would be substantial. In fact, dipping to test the 2674.00 bias-up signal down to 2672.00 during the bias-up environment created a slingshot effect that resumed the overnight rally. But that's not substantial. This is:

The noon hour's entry was soon retesting Monday's highs up to 2684.25. Not much later at all, attacking the morning's 2681.00 bias-up target and then the afternoon's 2688.75 bias-up target. The afternoon's 2693.00 renewed bias-up target was part of a consolidation, but it has resolved up to the next higher objective above 2684.25, which is 2696.75.

1-minute RSI is diverging negatively, while overbought 3-minute RSI is at least no longer persistently overbought. Nothing requires extending higher. Reacting down a little could mean reacting down a lot, especially back under 2693.00. Not reacting down at all could mean extending a lot, with the next higher objective being 2721.50.

A retest of Monday's highs up to 2684.25 was never off the table. Not even after Tuesday's session of chipping away at support around 2660.00. Those dips had recovered to reflect accumulation, but never recovered high enough to signal that accumulation was getting any more aggressive. Already rallying overnight and fulfilling potential to 2684.25 could have been overly-optimistic and reversed back down intraday Wednesday. But the morning's wide directionless chop resolved that problem. Its dip was recovered, this time high enough to signal that the rally was resuming. Wednesday morning's chop resolved substantially, as was expected from its measurements and frequency. It fulfilled the next higher objective at 2696.75 upon entering the afternoon bias environment. And that was the close, after the balance of the session ranged around it between 2691.00-2700.00. The rally gained no traction by exiting the bias environment in the noon hour's range and entering the final hour in the bias environment range. A durable trend Thursday morning must begin by gapping open. Trending without gapping open would be vulnerable to reversing back through unchanged. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2703.25 2701.00 ...would target  2712.50 2710.25 Bias-down: under  2692.50 2690.25 ...would target  2684.25  2682.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.