Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 05-11-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... The rally's next higher objective at 2080.50 was met to within 2-3 ticks. Each of Tuesday's timing windows probed a fresh session high on the way to a 25-point gain -- 31 points when including Tuesday night's initial drop to 2048.00. The rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour's high, and then also trending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 window. Overnight action's new info... Dipping immediately at last night's Globex open has extended down to 2069.50. Its reaction is testing 2075.00 as resistance, which is essentially yesterday's noon hour high, and still indicating a gap down. If, then... Gaining traction yesterday suggests the rally will resume this morning, even if the open were to gap down -- so long as the gap isn't under yesterday afternoon's 2072.00 bias environment low, which could instead invert the bullish signal to bearish. Having tested last Monday's highs, trending up this morning above yesterday's highs would all but confirm the ongoing decline has ended. But the most bearish scenario should be limited to a test of 2059.50. And there is no bearish scenario until this afternoon if the open has resumed rallying. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2077.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2073.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2071.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Opening dip is recovered after news. Surging out of the open was the most appropriate behavior for resuming the rally this morning. Recovering 2076.00 would have been appropriate, too. But the open's 2-1/2 point surge only touched 2076.00, and then attacked the overnight lows down to 2070.50. Perhaps the recovery was just inhibited by the impending EIA news. Already having firmed back up to the 2073.00 bias-down signal, the news triggered a 5-point surge. The grace period had been invoked, so the 10:30 surge can be assumed to have triggered late no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal is in-play. That would fulfill the traction gained by yesterday's rally. Back under 2074.25 would undermine the recovery -- or, at least, undermine extending the recovery today.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2081.75  2076.75 ...would target  2087.50 2082.50 Bias-down: under  2072.50 2067.50 ...would target  2067.25  2062.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open surge returns to its lows. Was this moring's 2073.00 bias-down signal not rejected until 10:30 because the EIA report had inhibited price action? Possibly. It triggered a 5-point surge to 2078.00 where at least some hesitation had been likely. But that surge was retraced entirely, probing 3 ticks under the overnight lows down to 2068.75. Ranging narrowly for two hours has held 2073.00 as resistance. Now the noon hour is being exited and the afternoon's bias timing window is just minutes away. Reaction to the 10-year auction is retesting the low. It's only a knee-jerk reaction down if 2071.50 and 2073.00 are recovered now. That's still quite a bit short of the 2076.75 bias-up signal. A rejection of yesterday's rally isn't very likely today, but that doesn't prohibit probing fresh session lows before recovering.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2072.50 2067.50 ...would target  2078.75  2074.00 Bias-down: under  2062.75  2058.00 ...would target 2057.50  2052.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The morning bias environment's probes beyond either end of the opening range were unusual volatility. Wednesday's session had many influences left outstanding, which will be important to know about going into Thursday's session. Among those that I described during the post-market Tour are:

Morning's fresh low was neither rejected nor extended. Symmetrical Triangle may have launched a false break. Afternoon drop was "no-bias trending" that requires recover. Inside day suggests sponsorship was weak-handed sellers. Yet the decline gained traction by its afternoon timing windows.

Almost any further downside would target a retest of Friday's lows. Resuming the rally would likely start by gapping up sharply. Levels and objectives are discussed on the recording, and we'll delve deeper into the likelier setups before Thursday's open. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.