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CHARTROOM LINK(s)
Through the prior close...
Overnight action''s new info...
If, then...
First Trade... Pre-open drop extends into the open, and out of it. Sliding from overnight highs greeted the open at this morning''s 2127.25 bias-up signal. That was the extent of its support, as post-open action plunged to 2122.25. That was yesterday''s noon hour low. Any lower through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have invalidated the rally''s traction it gained yesterday afternoon. It held, so the reward of probing yesterday''s highs this morning remains intact. But there''s a contradictory signal. The 2127.25 bias-up signal didn''t trigger, after having tested it, which puts into play an offsetting test of the 2119.25 bias-down signal. This contradictory signal could have been negated by recovering 2127.25 at 10:30. It was being attacked then to within 1 tick, but not recovered. It can be negated at 11:30 by exceeding the open''s 2127.75 high. In reality, 11:30 ought to be probing much higher, if at all. Otherwise, 2127.25 is the range''s upper-end. It''s being tested now, and back under 2125.25 would resume the post-open drop targeting 2119.25, and potentially 2114.25, too. 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap. Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) 30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.Stock Market Pre-Open Plan - 7:23 AM
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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
The bullish WedEX signal continued its influence through Monday morning. Recovering above 2115.00 was extended first to attack 2121.00, and then 2125.00. The afternoon''s attack on 2129.00 held up long enough for the rally to gain traction. A last-minute dip tested 2125.00 into the close.
Monday''s late 5-point dip from attacking 2129.00 was recovered just enough to pierce it by midnight. That held until Europe''s opens, which then doubled the gain by surging to 2134.00. The surge hasn''t extended, and consolidating around 2131-2132.00 is now dipping to 2130.00.
Reversing down this morning is possible, since the target''s 2133.00 upper-end has been met. But its intraday retest likely because yesterday''s rally gained traction. The reward is control of the next morning''s bias environment -- also with some complexity or trending. Otherwise, except for an errant tick at 2129.00, only a singular leg produced 2134.00, so it is not necessarily a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires intraday retest. A pre-open dip back to or under yesterday''s highs would make the overnight high''s retest likelier to hold, instead of extending higher today to 2140.00. Caveat: A pre-open dip into negative territory still could extend down this morning -- after all, a big target has been met.
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2133.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2132.25 bias-up target through 10:15, renewing the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2130.00 would be likely to trigger the 2127.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Market Opening Thoughts - 10:46 AM
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Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:58 AM
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2129.50
...would target 2138.25
2135.25
Bias-down: under 2127.50
2124.50
...would target 2122.50
2119.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Daily Spot... Euro trashed. - 3:17 PM
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Monday''s 1.1370 sell signal extended down sharply overnight. Last Monday''s 1.1135 prior low held its retest, but the break was confirmed so at least an eventual third lower close is now required. Closing under 1.1095 would trigger a bigger pattern''s break targeting 1.0900 and 1.0750.
Monday night''s drop probed under the 1224.00 pullback limit and extended down sharply intraday to test 1208.50 down to 1205.00. Still overlapping 1208.50 at the close does offer one opportunity to recover, which would be to close Wednesday back above 1213.00 and not confirm Tuesday''s break. Otherwise, new lows under 1160.00 may be in-play.
Monday''s close above prior highs was rejected by gapping down Tuesday under Monday''s range, and extending down to probe under 16.90. The timing of the aggressive move is a little surprising, but it still lacks confirmation of a second consecutive lower close.
Monday night''s bounce held the 154-12 bounce limit and extended down Tuesday morning to 151-28. Its reaction up probed the intraday 153-02 bounce limit up to 153-21. That was reversed back down to 152-18, whose break would confirm 150-25 remains in-play.
Tuesday''s gap down under 59.20 support all but ends the recent opportunity for the pullback limit''s retest to launch a more durable rally leg. There is only one opportunity to reject it immediately Wednesday. Confirming it would initially target 55.00.
Gapping up Tuesday without any unfinished business above left the rally vulnerable to a post-open reversal from 3.19 into negative territory at 2.94. But the open''s 3.08 gap should be retested as resistance before a durable downleg can begin.
Tomorrow's Market Predictions - 5:17 PM
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2128.50
...would target 2136.50
2133.50
Bias-down: under 2122.25
2119.25
...would target 2117.25
2114.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2132.75
WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2131.50