Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 05-20-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
The first signs of topping appeared Tuesday. After having met the 2128.00 target Monday, and probing room for noise up to 2133.00 by an overnight surge, Tuesday''s open was greeted back under 2128.00 on the way down to 2122.50. The afternoon''s false break higher was reversed to a fresh session low. The close bounced, but sellers gained a little traction by entering the final hour under the bias environment''s range, negating the bias environment''s exit above the noon hour''s range. Meanwhile, unfinished business was left outstanding below at 2119.25.

Overnight action''s new info...
Choppy sideways action has avoided touching yesterday''s low, repeatedly testing 2122.00 and bouncing to 2126.00.

If, then...
Tuesday''s 2134.00 pre-open high doesn''t require a retest, but it is still an attraction until momentum reverses down. Testing 2119.25 below can be ignored temporarily by a detour back to the highs, or tested without reversing momentum down. Opening in rally mode would be credible for trending up this morning. Not opening in rally mode would be likelier to probe fresh lows, becoming vulnerable to extending down if not recovered almost immediately.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2130.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2128.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Open''s drop is absorbed and reversed.

As expected, regardless of its direction, the open''s first trending attempt was likely to extend 5-6 points. Try 7, from 2126.00 down to 2119.25. That fulfilled unfinished business below left outstanding yesterday.

It also touched this morning''s bias-down signal. And oversold RSIs there were quickly neutralized. Price has trended back up since then.

So, also as suspected, the attraction below could be tested without reversing momentum down -- if its test were isolated to a relevant timing window. Having bounced already to 2126.25, the downside momentum does seem done.

Holding a test of the bias-down signal through 10:15 has now put into play an offsetting test of the 2128.50 bias-up signal. Extending above it would next be attracted back up to yesterday''s pre-open high. Its test isn''t required, but it would better enable a downleg to begin.

Regardless of the path higher, it remains intact so long as pullbacks hold any test of 2122.50. Timing is likely to be impacted by the impending  afternoon release of FOMC Minutes.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2130.25
2127.25
...would target 2135.50
2132.50
Bias-down: under 2123.00
2120.00
...would target 2118.00
2115.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Further weakness Wednesday tested 1.1095 support down to 1.1066, reacting up on FOMC Minutes, but remaining in negative territory under 1.1160. Still overlapping Tuesday''s lows does make it difficult to fulfill the outstanding objective.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday''s plunge to test 1208.50 didn''t extend down Wednesday, so the break wasn''t confirmed. Closing back above 1213.00 would be target a retest of the rally''s 1232.00 target. Closing under 1205.00 would resume the drop, still needing confirmation.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming slightly Wednesday was too shallow to reverse momentum back up, but it did avoid confirming Tuesday''s break. Closing back above 17.25 would target 18.15.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially dipping Wednesday to within 1 tick of Tuesday''s 151-28 low was recovered entirely to retest the decline''s 152-02 bounce limit. Having stopped optimistically short of actually touching the low before bouncing, lower lows remain likely.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly didn''t extend higher Wednesday, even in reaction to the EIA report. A second consecutive lower close was avoided, so the likely pullback target of 55.00 isn''t necessarily in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday stopped well short of filling the gap back to Tuesday''s gap up, before reversing into negative territory. Having that unfinished business above does reflect a modest position of strength in greeting Thursday''s EIA report.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2131.00
2128.00
...would target 2136.00
2133.00
Bias-down: under 2122.25
2119.25
...would target 2117.25
2114.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.