Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 06-06-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Plunging in reaction to Friday's pre-open payrolls number had extended down through the open. Support was finally found within 1 tick of the 2082.50 renewed bias-down target. Its reaction up into the final hour tested 2101.00, which was 2-3 points short of regaining positive territory. But the rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's high, and then entering the final hour higher. Overnight action's new info... Ranging flat-to-lower greeted Europe's opens at 2095.00. That triggered a surge through Friday's recovery high, still several ticks short of Thursday's close If, then... Gapping up isn't necessary to resume the rally without delay this morning, or to rally from a weaker open. But Friday's payrolls shock seems to have been a detour, instead of its bounce only refueling sellers. And this weekend's pro-Brexit gains seem irrelevant, after having been responsible for reversing last week's initial probe of fresh highs. Without reversing another fresh high, or extending any early weakness, the coast seems clear for a broad rally effort targeting 2116.00-2119.00 . First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.50 would be likely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2095.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Payrolls and Brexit sellers now fueling the rally. There were no obstacles to rallying this morning, only potential obstacles of the open reversing back under support or else the bias timing window not triggering bias-up. Now it's too late for those potential obstacles to form. Past obstacles were retraced already before the open. Friday's reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report and last Tuesday's reaction to improved Brexit support have resolving in probing fresh highs. 2106.00 was touched just minutes before Friday morning's plunge. That has been probed this morning up to 2108.25. The 2103.00 bias-up signal triggered, putting into play a test of its 2110.75 bias-up target. A negative knee-jerk reaction down is possible on Yellen's noon hour comments -- or in anxiousness ahead of them. The 2110.75 bias-up target would become "unfinished business above" if not met this morning.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2111.75 2110.00 ...would target  2117.50  2116.00 Bias-down: under  2104.50 2103.00 ...would target  2098.75  2097.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Yellen reaction has largely retraced. The open's surge had consolidated to form an Ascending Triangle. Room for noise above it up to 2109.00 was touched twice before the noon hour. That firmed a Double Top from the Triangle's breakout. And that's often bearish. The pattern normally resolves by trending back down in multiple legs that take 1-2 timing windows to complete. The decline tends to be recovered. In fact, reacting down ahead of Yellen's comments suddenly extended sharply in reaction to her slightly hawkish comments. A 4-1/2 point bounce attacked 2108.00 where another downleg was triggered targeting 2101.50 -- and soon fulfilled down to 2099.50. The downleg has been largely retraced almost as quickly as it had developed. That might be a little too optimistic, barely being 1-2 timing windows past the failed Ascending Triangle. Regardless, back above 2108.00 at any time would resume this morning's rally, which is still targeting 2110.75. Meanwhile, a little more backing-and-filling can define the afternoon bias environment.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2113.25 2111.50 ...would target  2118.50  2117.00 Bias-down: under  2103.75  2102.25 ...would target 2097.25  2095.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Note: A technical problem interrupted the Wrap's recording, so the discussion is unavailable until halfway through. I'm awaiting a support response to troubleshoot recovery methods, and will email if it becomes available. Pullback potential to 2107.25-2108.50 was being probed before finally fully fulfilling it at the cash session's very last minute. That was too late for reacting up enough to suggest another long-entry, let alone a hold-long through the close. The rally's probe of fresh highs and new high closed gained no traction for its effort. So, extending the rally higher without delay would require gapping up Tuesday. Otherwise, the uptrend would be unlikely to resume before the afternoon bias environment had begun lapsing. The current ES  futures front-month has twice probed last Fall's last relative high. This had long ago become the recovery's minimum objective. SPX cash is still 3 points short. Regardless, its test was never likely to withstand probing higher, even if only temporarily. But "unfinished business above" is quickly disappearing. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.