Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Snapping back up into Thursday's 3110.00 close extended higher into Friday's pre-open Employment Situation report. Reacting up to 3179.00 pre-open formed Relentless Overnight Trending which the open's uptrend through 9:45 signaled would extend higher through the morning. The bias environment exit had just attacked to within 2 ticks the bear market rally's next minimum target at 3210.50. Afternoon hovering completed a bullish gap-and-go setup, and easily held a bullish Friday trend high close at 3189.50. The high's overbought RSIs were left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open spiked up to 3205.00, and an hour later surged up to 3211.50. There was no complexity, so it doesn't qualify as a new Globex trend extreme despite piercing Friday morning's high. While neutralizing unfinished business at Friday morning's overbought RSIs, last night's high also pierced the 3211.00 level we had put on our radar weeks ago. Its retest then duplicated Friday's result by reversing back down sharply, ultimately to within 2 points of Friday's low at 3183.25. Now a bigger bounce up to 3207.00 is trying to hold. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday afternoon's restrained optimism that triggered the gap-and-go now allows a pullback today. Overnight action isn't informative to the setup, although typically fresh highs by now would already by hinting at its failure. Ranging sideways overnight doesn't make the pullback less likely. Neither would probing higher post-open, unless the probe were not rejected through a timing window's exit. I'll be aggressive with an early sell signal, be it into opening weakness or strength. A day-long pullback would have plenty of room below, as we described during the Saturday Review. But any indication of maintaining a break above 3211.00 would open the door to extending higher anyway. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3208.00 would be likely to trigger the 3202.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3195.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Buyers still treading water. Hovering Friday afternoon was actually buyers treading water. But not retracing deeper than 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} to the open was likely keeping their heads above water. That created a position of strength for today to slip beneath the water's surface and be likely to recover. This is a pullback day. Last night's range and now this morning's open have had a bit of both -- efforts to dip, and their recoveries. The recoveries have peaked upon testing Friday morning's 3210.50 high. That's not bearish in itself, not until the timing window lapses without succeeding. The timing window has lapsed, having extended to fresh post-open lows at 3193.50. So, today's buyers are weaker-handed. More so, they expended buying pressure to probe above the 3202.00 bias-up signal without triggering it. This signals no-bias, and an offsetting test of the 3177.00 bias-down signal is in-play.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3213.00 3211.00 ...would target 3220.00 3218.00 Bias-down: under 3197.25 3195.50 ...would target 3186.00 3184.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Not preventing no-bias trending. Not quite a pullback day, although the setup's Friday-to-Monday lapse did inhibit extending higher thismorning. The pre-open test of 3211.00 slid to 3193.50 as the bias environment began. Then it was recovered, with the confines of its no-bias window, but ignoring the 3177.00 objective that becomes unfinished business. It was even confirmed by a fresh post-10:30 low. Which makes this afternoon's probe of fresh highs up to 3216.50 no-bias trending. It requires retracing the 3211.00 bias-up signal, if not also the 3209.00 1:20 print. The consequence for this morning's dip violating its bounce limit was likely fresh highs, which is now met. Exiting the bias window back under the morning's 3211.00 highs would help to confirm the pullback day remains intact, still vulnerable to extending down. Perhaps even through tomorrow morning to compensate for this afternoon's detour. Nothing requires reversing down at any specific time, let alone today, but I'll keep sell signals as aggressive as possible.

The weekend lapse may have inhibited the usual deep and day-long pullback allowed by Friday's gap-and-go setup. Sunday night's retest of Friday's 3210.50 high did react down to 3193.50 through Monday's opening hour, but still held several points positive and never taking RSIs oversold. Putting into play an offsetting test of the morning's 3177.00 bias-down signal didn't prevent recovering back to overnight highs before noon. And the afternoon no-bias window didn't prevent no-bias trending above the 3211.00 bias-up signal. Both 3177.00 and 3211.00 become unfinished business, added to the list as the rally extends higher with limited correction or delay. Monday's fresh recovery high close fulfills Friday's new trend high close that required it. Required eventually, not necessarily immediately, and already fulfilled. An eventual fresh high close was also required to reward Friday's gap-and-go setup for having hovered into the weekend. Closing above 3211.00 signals that the 3288.00 target is in-play, assuming that Tuesday also closes above 3211.00. That latter condition may be difficult if Monday's rally -- which had the feel of being either blow-off or premature -- postures defensively Tuesday ahead of Wednesday's FOMC policy statement. One possible catalyst could be Tuesday's post-open JOLTS report, its jobs openings being sort of a cross-check against Friday's controversial Payrolls report, ripe for dissent. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3233.25 3231.25 ...would target 3246.00 3244.00 Bias-down: under 3220.00 3218.25 ...would target 3204.25 3202.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.