Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. Thursday's gap down deviated from the two prior opens that had gapped up. But it copied their post-open action by trying to rally anyway. "Unfinished business below" at 2097.75 dragged price down into the noon hour. But the balance of the session rallied to pierce the 2107.00-2110.00 resistance that had contained prior highs. To the degree that its 1-tick margin is reliable, the afternoon's bias-up signal left unfinished business above at 2109.00. Overnight action's new info... That 1-tick margin doesn't seem reliable, at all. Already dipping a couple of points into Thursday's close, Globex extended lower to test 2102.00 by midnight. That was the rally's penultimate objective 2107.00, which had held through Monday and Tuesday's close. It performed better as resistance than as support, which melted away at Europe's opens, now attacking 2091.00. If, then... Monday's noon hour reaction to Yellen's comments had dipped sharply to attack 2091.00. The interim recovery into Wednesday's high was 20 points higher. Monday was the last morning that had been signaled to rally. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings rallied anyway, dooming themselves to failure, and creating a lower attraction. The attraction was neutralized by Thursday's warning shot across the bow, which went on to create a higher target. The higher target that has been suspicious since being signaled, now absolutely dubious, when considering last night's action in the context of what we've known all along -- that reversing down would unfold quickly if at all. None of which will matter this morning if the open recovers back above yesterday's close. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2100.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2098.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2092.25 would be unlikely to recover the 2093.25 bias-down target by 10:15 which would renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2086.50.

Opening uptick meets post-open slide. Intraday action hasn't been very remarkable, at least not in terms of point-range. But the structure is very revealing. Gapping down immediately bounced as was suspected. And as expected, that was only temporary before reversing down to fresh lows. Although not yet put into play by the bias timing window, the 2086.50 renewed bias-down target was touched.

RSIs diverged positively on the retest of 2086.50, and a subsequent retest has launched a bigger bounce to new intraday highs testing the 2093.25 bias-down target as resistance.

Hope springs eternal, that's how sellers are refueled in a persistent downtrend. This being a Friday, the morning's bias signal should persist through the noon hour. Bouncing much during a bias-down environment could find buying pressure depleted just when it would have had more impact, entering the afternoon. Anxiousness into two days of illiquidity probably exacerbated the open's selling pressures. Holding a test of the 2086.50 renewed bias-down target indicated that selling pressure was satisfied. A big bounce will bring those two days come back into focus.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2108.00 2097.75 ...would target 2112.25 2102.25 Bias-down: under 2098.00 2088.00 ...would target 2092.50 2082.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Fewer chances to avoid capitulation, this being a Friday. Potential for bouncing back up to 2093.50 bias-down target was fulfilled. Its test originated from the re-test of of this morning's 2086.50 renewed bias-down target. As described during the pre-market Tour, the most bearish template would do its best portray stability, if not a bottom. But being a bias-down environment, and so long as the bias-down target wasn't recovered, that would be sponsored only by weak-handed buyers. Also described during the Tour was the likelihood for an afternoon capitulation. (Not necessarily collapse, although that would be the next degree.) The noon hour has probed fresh session lows down to 2085.50, which invalidates the interim bounce. But that has created the basis for a Lunch Hour Reversal setup.

The Lunch Hour Reversal setup enters the noon hour of a down day above the open's lows, and then isolates a fresh session low to the noon hour to  suggest that its sellers are weak-handed.

Today's noon hour was entered at 2091.00. So, the setup would complete by exiting the noon hour back above 2091.00. The balance of the afternoon need not get back on the chairlift, but simply get off the downhill slopes. Get a hot chocolate. Enjoy the view.

The noon hour's low has reacted up 4 points. That's still a couple of points short of 2091.00. Just recovering this afternoon's 2088.00 bias-down signal in time to avoid triggering it would not qualify for the setup. Late afternoon would still be vulnerable to capitulating. Otherwise, the bounce could extend up to 2098.00.

Friday morning's post-open bounce fulfilled its intention of lulling market participants into complacency before a capitulative afternoon drop. But a capitulation isn't very capitulative if it's not maintained. The last half-hour's recovery back into the noon hour's range all but erased that capitulation's effects That said, the late bounce was probably only a temporary corrective bounce. Its 2088.25 peak was calculated from a correction of the afternoon's 10-point drop to 2079.50. Holding it to the tick -- twice, recovering it after a 3-point interim dip -- is the best confirmation available until the next open. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Join us at 9:30am ET for the Saturday Review when we look at the bigger picture and your stock chart requests in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2103.00  2093.00 ...would target  2108.75  2098.75 Bias-down: under  2092.00 2082.00 ...would target 2087.00  2077.00 Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.