Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Not necessarily bearish, but this week has been rich with non-bullish behavior. Tuesday's open was greeted back down at Monday's 3200.00 open, fully retracing the interim intraday rally to 3231.00, that had trended up through Monday's close. Gapping down under Monday's afternoon 3206.50 low triggered a session-long decline setup, but no timing window probed a prior window's low. The 3218.50 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement was tested and retested up to 3221.00 before the last half-hour fell back to 3202.00 through the close. Monday's close above 3211.00 was not confirmed. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Tuesday's late reaction down from 3221.00 was fully recovered 3 hours after the Globex open, and had extended up to 3227.25 an hour later. Flat-to-lower ranging had slipped to 3213.00 where Europe's opens tried to resume the rally. But that went poorly, instead collapsing to within 2 points of yesterday morning's low at 3193.00. Its reaction just touched 3211.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday I focused on Tuesday being the second consecutive bearish setup to be absorbed prematurely, and how those bounces produced by impatient optimism isn't bullish when it originates from an unstable base. Now a third example greets today's open, but this one's cycle has developed entirely overnight. Retracing last night's probe above yesterday's highs has also retraced even more of Tuesday afternoon's rally than did yesterday's late dip -- suggesting both that rallies in this range are sponsored by weaker hands, and also that their retracements haven't been sufficient consequence for rallying prematurely. All of which might be dismissed as inhibition ahead of today's FOMC events. The distribution doesn't prevent probing even higher, especially not intraday. Anything is possible on FOMC days. But greeting FOMC from within a multi-session range tends not to trend durably in either direction through the close. We'll apply that likelihood in case of a trending attempt before and/or after. There's no unfinished business above, while other external influences beyond FOMC include WedEX at the close, and rollover tomorrow morning. (Powerball is overnight, in case you're wondering if Market Tour is a little late on Thursday.) First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open  under 3207.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3211.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3218.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Probing two days of lows. The 3193.00 overnight low had recovered pre-open up to 3119.00. But opening at the 3211.50 bias-up signal spent the first hour trending down. The 3197.50 bias-down signal was triggered and the 3183.25 bias-down target is already met to within 2 ticks. A bounce has room up to the 3197.50 bias-down signal (now being tested) during the bias-down environment. A bounce is likelier than extending down because pre-FOMC mornings tend not to trend. Extending above 3197.50 prematurely or after the bias window lapses -- but before the 2:00 FOMC policy statement -- could easily gravitate back up to the 3211.50 open. Extending under the 3183.25 bias-down target would next target 3177.00. Unlikely to develop, not before FOMC, and then likely to recover, especially before FOMC. But also presumably in its wake since FOMC is being greeted from within a multi-session range. I'll update those likelihoods if/when they're being challenged.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3209.75 3208.00 ...would target 3226.25 3224.50 Bias-down: under 3186.00 3184.25 ...would target 3172.25 3170.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Greeting FOMC back in the range. This morning's bias-down environment attacked its bias-down target to within 2 ticks at 3184.25. And then probed it another 4 points lower down to the 3179.75 low. Potential another 2 points lower to 3177.00 was left outstanding, perhaps another example of impatient buyers.. In fact, Monday and Tuesday's 3200.00 opening print is being tested now as FOMC is minutes away. So, the events are being greeted at a relevant level, instead of trending away. There's no greater likelihood for reacting in either direction, but we'll have levels as the new approaches. Trending ahead of FOMC is still difficult, and trending from within the range after FOMC is likely to retrace. There is no unfinished business above at this moment.

Wednesday was defined by multiple failed bounces. Its open was greeted by an overnight rally above Tuesday's high up to 3227.00, and its reversal back into negative territory at 3193.00. Failed bounce #1. Failed bounce #2 was a pre-open bounce up to 3219.00 that reversed down again to 3180.00. Later firming into the FOMC events surged up to 3221.00 for failed bounce #3, which was reversed down to 3185.50. Greeting Wednesday's FOMC day within a multi-session range had made trending beyond it unlikely to extend. That was never really put to the test, as the wide intraday ranges were contained within the range. The likelihood persists for near-term trending to return back into the range, and being vulnerable to reversing back through the range more substantially in the opposite direction. At least, its eventual reversal gets a benefit of the doubt until being maintained through a relevant timing window. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3199.25 3197.50 ...would target 3211.25 3209.50 Bias-down: under 3178.25 3177.00 ...would target 3167.75 3166.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.