Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 06-17-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday night''s drop back down to intraday lows at 2062.00 had evaporated by Tuesday''s 2074.50 open. That pre-open recovery extended through the day to 2088.75. The bias environment''s exit was above the noon hour''s range, but that momentum wasn''t confirmed. Still, the afternoon''s bias-up triggered, leaving outstanding its 2090.75 target.

Overnight action''s new info...
The Globex open immediately spiked up to touch 2090.75. Extremely narrow ranging supported by Tuesday''s 2088.75 high eventually broke higher into and out of Europe''s opens. Touching 2096.50 (this morning''s bias-up target) has reacted back down into the narrow range at 2089.75.

If, then...
"Grehetoric," Greece+Euro+exit+rhetoric... Grehetoric has been pretty thick overnight, which is to say just slightly above normal. That didn''t prevent probing above yesterday''s highs, let alone push price into negative territory. Most of the earlier gain is now retraced, but from higher levels that can help to absorb the selling before it gains traction. Trending very far is unlikely before this afternoon''s FOMC events. So, retracing yesterday''s rally should be limited if attempted at all, while rallying should be limited to retesting overnight highs.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 2093.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2090.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2086.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Did opening range hold-up long enough to absorb selling?

Post-open action immediately attacked the 2090.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick before reversing up as quickly to 2095.25. Price action since then has trended back down.

Trending back down in a very narrow range can be only noise. In fact, the reaction down only attacked the 2090.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick through 10:15, triggering it. Only after becoming too late to invoke the grace period was it pierced.

And piercing under the 2090.75 bias-up signal has been short-lived. Its support held again at 10:30. This is a bias-up environment, targeting a retest of the 2096.50 overnight high, which is also this morning''s bias-up target.

Without a fresh high, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2090.75 bias-up signal could still invalidate its 10:15 trigger. Meanwhile, back above 2092.25 would signal momentum reversing up.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2100.00
2091.50
...would target 2105.00
2096.50
Bias-down: under 2088.50
2080.00
...would target 2080.50
2072.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Days of narrow ranging finally broke higher, needing the FOMC policy statement as a catalyst. Retesting prior highs at 1.1340-1.1350 can easily fulfill the outstanding third higher close requirement.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Intraday pressure back down to 1175.00 support Wednesday was relieved by the FOMC news that triggered a surge back up to test 1188.00. Back under 1178.00 would accelerate the next downleg.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The reaction up on Wednesday''s FOMC statement probed back into the 16.15-16.35 range to 16.25, which is still too shallow to signal a recovery underway..

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday''s inside day under 151.25 was still a little too optimistic for consolidating the rally. That vulnerability was exploited by Wednesday''s FOMC statement for a reaction down to within 2 ticks of 149-16 support, which recovered back above 151-00. The reaction isn''t deep enough and the recovery isn''t high enough to be assured that sellers are done.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing overnight well above 60.80 reacted down Wednesday under the 60.30 pullback limit, attacking 58.75. Recovering stopped a few dimes short of 60.30.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing fresh highs at 2.95 reacted down intraday Wednesday to close under prior highs. But not under a prior low, greeting Thursday''s EIA report from a position of strength. The rally is likely to extend so long as pullbacks now hold 2.83 as support.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2103.75
2095.25
...would target 2109.00
2100.50
Bias-down: under 2093.50
2085.00
...would target 2087.00
2078.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.