Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday afternoon's relatively narrow 3097.00-3128.00 directionless afternoon was likely to persist into Wednesday, unless a bias signal were triggered. Rallying overnight up to 3147.00 was retraced to open Wednesday back within the range. The morning's bias objective was fulfilled by testing the range's lower-end at 3099.00. The afternoon's 3136.50 bias-up target became unfinished business when the range's upper-end was tested up to 3130.25, which itself left outstanding overbought RSIs requiring a retest. The afternoon returned to the range's lower-end at 3094.50, closing at 3102.00/3107.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Quite a ride, considering the narrow sideways ranging since Tuesday morning -- both bias-down parameters were probed, and the bias-up signal was just tested. Yesterday's late drop back down to the range's lower-end didn't have time to bounce before the close. Instead, its drop broke lower at Asia's opens and trended down steadily to within 6 ticks of Tuesday morning's low at 3064.50. Already reversing up by midnight, yesterday's lows were recovered just before Europe's opens. Recovering further up to 3120.00 was brief, and its reaction down is now trying to hold positive territory. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) REMINDER: TESTS, TIMING & TACTICS WORKSHOP AT 6:30 ET. A 5-stage pattern had formed into Wednesday's close, but never produced its 5th stage before the close. Opening around yesterday's lows could reinstate the pattern, so that holding positive territory through the opening 15 minutes would marginalize sellers for the morning. Disregarding that pattern, two other potentially setups may be forming. Both are built on reversing an overnight probe beyond the prior session's range. A bullish globex-flip would exit the opening 15 minutes above the 3110.00 earlier Globex high, but it would trigger a bearish setup if the earlier Globex high were tested without being recovered. An Isolation setup would spend the enter opening 15 minutes in positive territory, and then spend the morning above yesterday's low. So, just a little post-open strength could be rewarded by nearby upside objectives at 3130.25 and 3136.50, if not also 3159.00 and 3188.00/3197.50. Already attacking Tuesday's 3063.00 low to within 6 ticks neutralizes its attraction, so it would be less likely to hold if retested. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3108.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3116.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3098.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 3092.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3088.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

REMINDER: TESTS, TIMING & TACTICS WORKSHOP AT 6:30 ET. The 3064.50 overnight low had recovered up to 3120.00, but then reacted back down to 3073.50. Bullish opening setups were wiped off the table. The 3086.00 open congested in a 9-10 point range, and then rallied. The 3092.75 bias-down signal was recovered through 10:15 to trigger no-bias. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 3116.25 bias-up signal is in-play. The pre-10:15 3104.25 high had not yet extended, when a COVID headline triggered a spike down to 3087.50. While the Florida case increase is news, it isn't actually new, so the knee-jerk reaction was recovered entirely to fresh highs at 3107.00.

Greeting the news from a position of strength -- a higher objective is in-play -- helped.

Having probed the pre-10:15 high, nothing can invalidate the higher objective. But a detour is always possible, of indefinite degree or duration. Entering the noon hour still back under the Tue-Wed range's ~3098.00 lower-end would not be helpful.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3123.50 3111.50 ...would target 3137.25 3125.25 Bias-down: under 3096.25 3084.25 ...would target 3086.00 3074.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

REMINDER: TESTS, TIMING & TACTICS WORKSHOP AT 6:30 ET [click here for details]. This morning's 3116.25 bias-up signal becomes unfinished business for being left outstanding and not invalidated. Until it is resolved, downlegs won't be reliable for extending. Meanwhile, still struggling at the ~3098.00 lower-end of the Tue-Wed range continues to make trending difficult. Probing above the range after Tuesday's close and below it after Wednesday's close suggests the market is eager to resolve. Perhaps it also means tomorrow's Quad Witch expiration intends to release that pent-up pressure. Meanwhile, the only setups have been bullish, or else neutral, as selling pressure continues to be absorbed.

REMINDER: TESTS, TIMING & TACTICS WORKSHOP AT 6:30 ET.  [Get details here.] Thursday was day 2-1/2 of ranging narrowly intraday. Thursday's ranging was the narrowest, fluctuating around the prior two days' lows. Thursday's close was at the range's lower-end. All of which was preceded by Monday night's 100-point rally and Tuesday's gap up, which was followed that morning by its complete retracement. Another rally effort Tuesday night failed. An overnight decline Wednesday night also failed. Friday's quad-witch expiration has likely inhibited sponsorship, from trending or at least breaking out. While this situation can endure seemingly endlessly, it doesn't actually. Extended narrow ranges often break falsely in one direction, regardless of the ultimate breakout's resolution. Expiration can reinforce the first breakout's direction. Expiration is rarely accompanied by any significant econ report. This one has four Fed speakers, including Fed Chair Powell after noon. Volatility should be enhanced, and a strong intraday trend is increasingly likely. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3128.25 3116.25 ...would target 3141.25 3129.25 Bias-down: under 3107.00 3095.00 ...would target 3091.25 3079.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.