Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 07-03-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday night's ranging around 2417.00-2420.00 had broken higher, early enough not to be disqualified as only a last-minute false breakout. The pre-open attack on 2427.00 was probed post-open. But RSIs diverged negatively into another retest above 2428.00, triggering a reaction down to 2418.50. Two more touches of 2418.50 defined the morning's bias environment. The balance of the session was defined by recovering gradually to retest the morning's test of 2428.00. A late blip-up came too late to be credible, and was reversed down sharply by quarter-end re-positioning from 2430.00 to to attack the morning's 2418.50 low. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open quickly completed Friday's late dip back down to the morning's 2418.50 low. Then Friday's intraday pattern repeated, recovering gradually back up to test its late 2430.00 high. If, then... Levels and inflection points are always influential to some degree. But today's holiday-shortened session makes patterns less predictive and resolutions less reliable. So much, occasionally, that they can be contrary. That's probably why last night's dip back down to Friday morning's 2418.50 low was recovered instead of plunging through it -- which would be likely intraday. Meanwhile, today's session is greeted in an ongoing two-week downtrend of lower lows and lower highs, whose two rally efforts were rejected aggressively. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2430.50 would be likely to trigger the 2428.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2425.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Monday it's time for Monday's Morning Market two or not allowed to go over see if we can make this and record time the big thing that happened on Friday was Thursday Thursday night actually actually after Thursday night it was more Friday morning but it's actually it was this here's the overnight action Thursday night little bit of a head fake blip down quite literally at your UPS opens or into Europe's opens and then not so late that it was likely a false break and it has not been an extended but it hasn't been reversed since then but not that it extended Friday's pre-open had extended higher an early test of it while 3-minute are inside only failed to get to over but limited are inside the Verge negatively and reacted down and the morning being of Friday if you make it to the bias environment without X fill in the blank 4X if there is a axe that's being attempted in this is not just Friday mornings bias environment in a over way but beneath the surface behind the scenes or just a little little less influentially anytime in window this is pretty glaring that's Friday morning trying retrying retrying you know that's a tablet or a probe at some point is coming but couldn't get it done Friday morning and so when you come into the holiday weekend or essentially we're in what I've described to find is basically a five-day holiday even though it's not too working holiday balance of the session just gravitated higher I didn't catch that early enough but the point is that is what did happen just gravitated hire that was it for influence which we already knew that was going to be in short supply if it was going to be available at all and then at the end actually let's go to the one minute this was a bicycle right here that gravitating hire this was a bicycle ride here at 7:50 and it was too late to be credible that's how we got into the final hour it was too late to be credible for breaking it was too late but that doesn't mean that the market can't try breaking higher now we are in a two-week downtrend lower lows and lower high as the only Rally's that since Monday the two Mondays ago the only Rally's it is really to actual rally attempts there's one there's one last Monday rejected aggressively there is one Wednesday got somewhere didn't make a higher high but it was then Thursday rejected aggressively there's no reason to think that pattern has changed there's nothing that is a catalyst today so we're going to be 41 and Gala Davis break and now resting on its Laurels silver and gold both there's July for silver which is not the front-month anymore but just an illustrated because that's the pattern we were tracking with these gaps up to this area that needed to resolve down nothing changed from Wednesday's Gap up still needed to resolve down and indeed overnight last night down to 1640 bassist July that's here and now it's good except which equates to as far as last night 1645 the objective being to retest the test of what had been the target below this bike down that targeted at tested what was 1625 1630 and bassist July 16 35 40 basically call 35 basis app so nothing about the rally said that was off the table at least not at that point and now nothing about this reaction down suggest it isn't back on the table gold as well where to stop short last week actually testing the 12:35 Target before bouncing and now is fulfilling the 12:35 Target proving it overnight I can't say that that's going to be the end of the road here it's clearly not it's being probed intraday and so are overnight so it's clearly not going to turn on a dime so to speak but we could see this down to 1231 before suggesting a bigger break is underway if there's going to be a corrective balance of corrective bounces likeliest Launchpad would be from 12:31 having said that back about 12:36 would also be capable of launching a bounce with a couple of possibilities 1243 12:40 gold and silver to define a better low didn't happen and that overnight that's being probed little bit I mean it's not getting carried away because he's coming back to 46 resistance which was being tested Friday the longest 4525 doesn't break lower there's potential for this to extend even hire you know what's the potential that a bottom is already in it is that is possible I really don't like that pattern though that does leave a couple things unfinished below just one of the kind of thing that can happen on a note back headliner or two cutter is in the news of course but if there is a reaction down that can seal the bottom then we can look at crude oil as being pretty bullish Natural Gas Thursday's knee-jerk reaction up it wasn't sustain said we were probably coming down to the 290-5297 area got down to 298 that's not too bad it doesn't necessarily surprised it wasn't deep enough to to be reliable for having sealed the bottom that Gap really does want to be filled so overnight gap down and took care of that there's no unfinished business below now none there's no requirement to test the gap down last night's gap down and the Gap back to Friday's close is now an attraction helping to recover so back of a 308 is the nearest opportunity to know that the signal at least that momentum is reversing up again that in the case of natural gas bottom has been sealed but just testing just fill in the Gap back to 295 which we had indicated what which Thursday's pattern indicated was coming so long as that holds bottoming is underway alright any questions .

Buyers entrenched, threatening to exploit it. Extending above 2430.00 pre-open enabled gapping up to 2432.00. That extended gradually to 2436.50. Enough of that was maintained through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2440.00. More so, the gap up trended up through the open. This creates an anchor that can help to attract price up in case of a reaction down. The renewed bias-up target won't become "unfinished business above" if left outstanding. But the anchor is often recovered. And there was a reaction down. A quick dip retraced all post-open gains down to 2432.00. An inflection point 1 point higher was probed no deeper than its first 3 minutes -- in fact, the first bar probing the the inflection point was the probe's low. The dip has been recovered up to 2435.00. Any higher would start to signal the rally is extending again. But back under 2431.75 would signal the dip was becoming something deeper.

Exceeding Monday morning's 2435.50 bias-up target by 1 point through 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal. That's more of a suggestion than a requirement, especially on a holiday-shortened session during a 5-day working holiday. Its reaction down formed a Symmetrical Triangle that broke sharply lower at noon down to its 2427.50 target. A big snap back up was denied, despite testing "lower prior highs" down to 2426.50, and despite the drop being a knee-jerk reaction to a headline (re: ECB). RSIs were simultaneously oversold instead of diverging positively. Bouncing to 2431.00 resolved down to 2422.00 through the futures close. Hold-short wasn't overwhelmingly compelling, but could be considered with a bounce limit at either 2425.25 or 2427.50. Extending down at all would likely retest Friday morning's 2418.50 lows, which offer little support if any, on the way down to fresh lows. Recovering Monday's 2436.50 highs through any relevant timing window could instead end the two-week decline and rally back up to new highs. HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY! Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2433.25 2430.50 ...would target  2438.25  2435.50 Bias-down: under  2424.25  2421.50 ...would target 2418.25  2415.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.