Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 07-11-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Only an errant tick exceeded our long-standing 2125.25 objective. Its test Friday entered the session's attractions by gapping up above Thursday's 2102.00 high. It was confirmed in-play by maintaining the gap up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Exiting Friday afternoon's bias environment above prior highs then marginalized sellers for the balance of the day. The close was a new trend high. Overnight action's new info... Friday's closing action had dipped to test 2120.00, where Sunday night's open ranged narrowly. Firming back toward 2125.25 soon spiked up to 2133.00 on news of Japan;s stimulus. The singular surge was never extended while consolidating back to 2128.00. Blipping down to 2123.00 after Europe's opens has ranged back to 2129.00. If, then... Friday's new trend high close already requires another eventual higher close. Not necessarily a consecutive higher close, regardless of Sunday night's probe of new highs. Being a singular leg and not complex, that overnight high is not a "new Globex trend extreme" which would require intraday retest. So, exiting the open in negative territory could resume Friday's late reaction down from 2125.25, and put the market on defense for today or longer. But exceeding 2125.25 through the open could trend up into the afternoon. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2126.50 would be likely to trigger the 2124.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2134.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2129.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up target. Exiting the open under 2122.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gap up maintained long enough to matter. Like Friday's gap up, the opening 15 minutes of volatility didn't reject it. Also like Friday, the open had trended up through 9:45, printing higher lows and higher highs to within 2 ticks of the 2133.00 overnight high. Buyers have traction. But that doesn't prevent reactions down. Suddenly, a spike down to 2125.25 is making clear that upside momentum wasn't helped during the 10:15 bias timing window. Choppy ranging did trigger bias-up, but didn't renew it above the 2129.75 bias-up target. A bias-up environment has room to range down to its 2124.00 bias-up signal as support. Backing-and-filling this morning is likely so long as the 2129.75 bias-up target isn't recovered. Above it would target 2135.25-2136.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2143.25 2136.25 ...would target  2148.25 2141.25 Bias-down: under  2136.00  2129.00 ...would target 2131.00  2124.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Probing new highs has run into a no-bias. Maintaining the 2127.50 gap up through 9:45 had anchored the rally to prevent a reaction down from drifting off course. In fact, a blip-down touched 2125.25 and soon recovered back to and through the open's 2132.50 high. Firming attacked 2135.00 before the noon hour began, and 2137.00 before the noon hour ended. Not yet rejecting fresh extremes 40-45 minutes through the noon hour is essentially another anchor in case the rally drifts lower again. This afternoon's 2136.25 bias-up signal didn't trigger, so extending higher isn't likely until the bias environment begins lapsing. Room is available down to this afternoon's 2129.00 bias-down signal need not be exploited fully.

Monday finished with several mixed signals. They suggest that the rally isn't required to extend higher immediately, but an immediate pullback would require eventual recovery. Extending higher at all is aided by two factors. First is the proximity to the next higher objective at 2143.00, which was put into play by closing Monday above 2125.25. Second is Monday's second consecutive higher close above Friday's breakout close. Momentum hasn't reversed down, but the rally avoided triggering two of its sponsorships. First was Friday's new trend high close, which had created the requirement for an eventual higher close. That attraction was neutralized already by Monday's higher close.That's not a sell signal, but it didn't trap shorts. Second is Monday's 2127.50 gap up, which was tested after a dip touched Friday's "lower prior highs." It won't become an attraction above to require recovery from a break lower. A third factor challenging the upside is that Monday's buyers gained no traction, so only maintaining a gap up Tuesday would signal new sponsorship had arrived.

I suspect the groundwork has been laid for 2-3 very volatile intraday sessions, with significant trending attempts in both directions. The end o'quarter earnings onslaught may be the catalyst, as warnings and beats fight it out on the news ticker.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2142.00 2135.00 ...would target  2148.00  2141.00 Bias-down: under  2133.00  2126.00 ...would target  2126.50  2119.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.