Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 08-04-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE Bandwidth issues prevented the recording of today's Market Tour. Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's relatively 2468-2472 narrow range was interrupted by the Grand Jury headline. The plunge it triggered fulfilled the expected 2466.50 objective, albeit in an unexpected way. But its support then triggered a recovery into the close. Perhaps it was anxiousness ahead of Friday morning's Employment Situation report, paralyzing price action the prior afternoon. But it is eerie that the recent spate of gaps up and/or post-open slides didn't repeat either characteristic. Overnight action's new info... Friday is already promising to be more interesting. Since initially retracing some of yesterday's recovery back to 2468.00, the balance of the Globex session has trended higher. Gradually, but relentlessly, now probing yesterday's high up to 2475.50. The payrolls report's inhibiting influence seems suspect, or done. If, then... Another gap up and reversal down? Yesterday's dullness not withstanding, falling right back into that pattern seems mundane for an interesting market. It's also a lot of sentiment to express just ahead of something so weighty as the Employment Situation report. So, the question we may be faced with is whether the pre-open reaction down can persist through the morning, or if it corrected this overnight rally to allow its resumption. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning's bias often persists through the afternoon. First Trade... Preliminary levels aren't evaluated before an Employment Situation report.

Gap up extends, but still resolves down. Briefly. So much optimistic sentiment ahead of so weighty an item as this morning's payrolls suggests this is not a market that wants to stand still. Greeting the report more than 7 points off of overnight lows only bobbled briefly, but didn't back off. Post-open action extended higher. In fact, the 2477.75 post-open high probed the past week's worth of prior highs. But only briefly. The setup was essentially 1 tick away from signaling a very bullish morning ahead. But back under 2475.75 would indicate otherwise. No particular downside pattern was likely under 2475.75. And there wasn't much of one. Only a straight line to 2469.25. But, wait. There's more. The plunge to 2469.25 wasn't required to resolve with any particular characteristics. But it has been a straight line, too. Up, testing the 2474.50 bias-up signal at 10:30. It's too late to invalidate the no-bias signal that already put into play an offsetting test of the 2466.25 bias-down signal. But this reaction up was the best possible effort. Unless extended higher anyway, this bounce is vulnerable (if not also likely) to producing a second post-oipen  drop -- something missing from the past couple of weeks.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2478.25 2475.75 ...would target  2481.25  2480.75 Bias-down: under  2472.25  2469.75 ...would target  2466.00  2463.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Has the market evolved beyond Pavlov? It keeps gapping up -- to the same area, mind you -- and then reversing down. Not every day, but most days this week, and most days of the past two weeks. Oh, and the reversals down never extend. They've been contained by a series of higher lows with only two exceptions, one being a headline reaction. Perhaps Pavlov is alive and well... in the Dow. Not the proverbial Dogs of the Dow, far from it. The average has been rallying relentless and substantially during the same period. Although NDX has been flat-to-lower (more flat than lower), the Dow's outperformance isn't exactly rotation out of risk. It's more like becoming the risky index. Meanwhile, S&Ps are ranging flat-to-higher (more flat than higher) just under the high. Extending down should have happened by new if a new high were going to be avoided. Immediately breaking lower could extend but I would be suspicious. At least some fresh high is likely regardless of the eventual resolution. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2478.75 2476.25 ...would target  2484.50  2482.00 Bias-down: under  2470.25  2467.75 ...would target  2465.25  2462.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.