Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 08-18-2015

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2106.50
2103.00
...would target 2112.75
2109.25
Bias-down: under 2099.00
2095.50
...would target 2091.75
2088.25
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Probing fresh highs overnight at 2094.50 didn''t prevent gapping down Monday. But Thursday and Friday''s lows held at 2075.00, recovering 2080.50 in time to put into play 2091.00. Momentum slowed but did not stop -- triggering the afternoon''s 2094.50 bias-up signal targeted 2099.75, which was tested at the cash session''s very last possible minute .

Overnight action''s new info...
Firming into the Globex open soon extended up to 2103.75, 4 points above yesterday afternoon''s bias-up target that had been met at the close. But that was the end of that. Reversing down about 10 points eventually tested and retested 2093.00, probing back under yesterday morning''s highs. Its retest is being accompanied by WMT''s big earnings drop.

If, then...
Yesterday''s rally didn''t gain traction, not at the bias environment exit or at the final hour''s entry. So, gapping up is likely the only way to resume the rally without delay, and a gap up is certainly not indicated at this moment. That said, the overnight dip hasn''t slipped too far back into negative territory -- not, yet. Meanwhile, though, a "session-long decline" setup would begin forming by maintaining a gap down under yesterday afternoon''s 2096.00 low. I''ll be skeptical of that setup if it''s not triggered decisively. Recovering positive territory above 2099.25 before the open could get carried away easily to the upside.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2096.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2099.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal.

As suspected, this morning doesn''t want to trend.

The 2095.50 bias-down signal was still being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period through 10:30. It was recovered through then to trigger "late no-bias" instead of a clean no-bias.

An offsetting test of its 2103.00 bias-up signal is in-play, but more as a strong suggestion than as a requirement. As we discussed during the Market Tour, placement and price action already suggested this morning doesn''t want to trend.

The open''s choppy ranging confirms the pre-open expectation not to expect anything specific this morning. In fact, despite surging to 2099.25 resistance after invoking the grace period, 2095.50 was just retested.

I''m a little reluctant to label it as a "dry cleaners morning." i.e. perhaps spent more productively running errands. Tests of one end of the range are likely to reverse back to the other end. But signals have not yet been probed beyond their first 3 minutes, which just adds to the unpredictability.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2105.00
2101.50
...would target 2110.75
2107.25
Bias-down: under 2094.50
2091.00
...would target 2089.50
2086.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing overnight under 1.1075 proved that clinging to it Monday afternoon wasn''t actually rejecting its retest as support. Lower support at 1.1000 that still must break lower to signal a new downleg underway was attacked down to 1.1020.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting the 1112.00 pullback limit Tuesday probed under it to 1108.50 while Silver was substantially lower. But 1112.00 was recovered without a commensurate recovery in Silver, which suggests the rally will resume.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting 15.30 support under 15.15 extended down to attack 14.65 intraday Tuesday. Closing back above 14.90 would suggest the extra dip had been absorbed and that momentum was reversing back up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing the 158-26 buy signal temporarily Monday was retraced back down toward the 157-14 sell signal Tuesday morning, and then a few ticks closer during the afternoon.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A new low was avoided Tuesday which allows a buy signal to be identified. Closing back above 43.55 would start to suggest that at least a corrective rally had begun, targeting at least 45.15. By the same token, a fresh low close under 41.15 would resume the decline, next targeting 37.15.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down lower overnight to gap down Tuesday has jeopardized the trading range''s 2.77 lower-end from launching at least a retest of its 2.88 upper-end. Back above 2.77 would still be bullish.