Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 09-04-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday''s gap up immediately extended Wednesday''s last-minute breakout and extended to a 26-point gain attacking 1977.00 by mid-morning. The balance of the day fell back to unchanged, and momentarily through it to 1942.00. Closing around 1847.00 was essentially flat on the day.

Overnight action''s new info...
Plunging 21 points to 1928.00 soon after the Globex open was retraced almost entirely back to 1946.00. The balance of the night has been spent trending back down to and through the plunge''s low to 1922.00. Its reaction up to 1929.00 has extended up to 1931.00.

If, then...
.Trending overnight ahead of an Employment Situation report is unusual. That either reflects how volatile the environment has become, how inconsequential the report is, or how much of a bounce is coming. A bounce? For all of its volatility and probing lower lows, yesterday afternoon''s choppiness didn''t gain traction. That''s no more reliable of a bias to launch trending, than was Wednesday''s late breakout. Gapping down is the only way to extend trending that didn''t gain traction, so the burden of proof is on buyers to absorb the drop. If not yet trending up through the open, then trending down intraday will depend greatly on the reaction already to payrolls. Which is why...

First Trade...
I don''t have preliminary indications ahead of the Employment Situation report

Potential for trending no better than its sponsorship.

The software programming world coined the phrase, but its meaning is age-old: (If) garbage in, (Then) garbage out.

Similarly, without strong-handed sponsorship, trending opportunities are rare. At least, reliable trending, not to mention non-erratic.

The open had an opportunity to leave behind the overnight pessimism, but couldn''t hold above 1927.00 through the open. Its aggressive reaction down had an opportunity to retest overnight lows, but couldn''t get under its 1916.25 3-minute low.

Picking the resolution''s direction from the middle of a range isn''t that difficult within a trend. But gapping open without extending or reversing through the open is the opposite of trending.

There is transparency when probing either end of the consolidation. And probing the open''s 1930.00 high didn''t reveal any change in sponsorship. So, a reaction down was expected, and now 1920.00 is being tested.

Extending down to the range''s other end would target 1910.25 or 1908.25. Weak-handed sponsorship might suggest that its test would hold, but that would depend on its timing -- weak-handed counter-trend sponsorship might be unable to prevent price collapsing from its own weight.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1929.00
1927.00
...would target 1936.00
1934.00
Bias-down: under 1916.00
1914.00
...would target 1910.25
1908.25
Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Touching Thursday''s low and then firming into Friday afternoon avoids confirming Thursday''s breakout. It''s not quite enough to actually reject the breakout, but that attempt to trend down failed.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday''s break extended down Friday to probe under the 1125.70 pullback limit and to retest last week''s 1117.00 low by $1. There was already no bullish reason for Thursday''s break, and now Friday''s second consecutive lower close has confirmed.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly at or around 14.55 remains vulnerable to quickly visiting the recent gap down at 14.35 under all prior lows that requires being filled before a credible rally can begin.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday and firming to probe the 155-16 buy signal didn''t extend higher intraday. It''s still credible, but desperately needs confirmation from a second consecutive higher close.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A little weakness Friday didn''t undermine Thursday''s higher close that had confirmed the prior day''s recovery, targeting a fresh high.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down and trading weaker intraday Friday didn''t break under the range''s prior lows. Thursday''s piercing of its upper-end didn''t require immediate confirmation, so early strength Monday would be credible for trending higher intraday.