Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Flat-to-lower overnight ranging had rejected a bullish Globex-flip setup above 3235.00 in time to greet Thursday's open at fresh lows testing 3200.00.  The open's lower low at 3198.00 was recovered to probe briefly above the overnight high. But Wednesday afternoon's bearish PM Traction kept the morning under pressure. It barely lapsed before the recovery extended higher to the afternoon's 3268.00 high. Collapsing down to 3219.00 was reversed only at the 3:37 Position-squaring window -- back up to the pre-open Globex-flip's 3235.00 missed trigger. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's recovery through the Position-squaring window extended higher through the close to attack 3259.00. Hovering there through midnight was already resolving down through Europe's opens. The reversal has extended lower to retrace the entire Position-squaring window rally, at an accelerating pace that is now reacting up from 3206.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) This morning -- beginning with the opening action -- is a proving ground for yesterday's low. Probes under Wednesday's low were recovered, but Thursday's intraday rallies failed to maintain their recoveries above Wednesday night's highs. Now yesterday's last weak-handed rally during the Position-squaring window, despite extending higher overnight, is being retraced entirely. The decline is probably resuming today if an Opening Thrust were to break through any support that it tests, or if it were to hold a test of resistance. The decline possibly resumes today if an Opening Thrust isn't even attempted. A near-term bottom can form this morning if an Opening Thrust holds its test of support, but there is no nearby resistance to recover this early. I describe all of the Opening Thrust's permutations in the Market Tour recording. Friday Factors that are a function of the weekend's impending illiquidity can exacerbate either move. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3225.25 would be likely to trigger the 3236.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3233.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3208.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3213.50 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.

Now probing the bias-up signal. The first 15 minutes fluctuated around the 3226.50 bias-down signal between 3221.50-3237.00. An untimely dip to 3216.00 invoked the grace period, and its quick recovery triggered late no-bias. Regardless of being late, a fresh high after 10:30 further confirmed the signal.

An offsetting test of the 3245.50 bias-up signal was put into play, and quickly fulfilled. Its catalyst was the reaction to a China trade headline which triggered a spike up to 3253.00. The headline reaction's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement down to 3244.75 is already fulfilled.

Probing above the 3245.50 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment is no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Exiting the bias window above its 3257.25 bias-up target can negate the retracement. Meanwhile, since no Opening thrust was attempted by 9:45, this rally effort is likely sponsored by weak hands. Exiting the bias window above 3259.00 overnight highs would be bullish, but the door remains open to an afternoon slide.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3255.50 signal would target 3266.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3238.75 signal would target 3229.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3266.50 3255.50 ...would target 3277.00 3266.00 Bias-down: under 3249.75 3238.75 ...would target 3240.50 3229.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Still higher. Without an Opening thrust test by 9:45 either support or resistance, trending up this morning was likely sponsored by weak hands. A later dip isolated between 10:00-10:30 down to 3216.00 had a similar effect, albeit still too late to be considered weak-handed. None of which has prevented trending up productively. The morning high attacked the 3258.75 overnight high. The noon hour consolidation broke out to trigger bias-up, now probing the bias-up target to 3270.50. RSIs are simultaneously overbought. Reacting back down from overbought RSIs would create the requirement for their retest. That only makes less reliable an afternoon sell signal, with room back down to the 3255.50 bias-up signal during the bias-up window. Friday Factors undermine afternoon reversal attempts, but then exacerbate their productivity. Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment beyond either end of the noon hour range would be likely to trend in that direction.

Friday's dip under Friday's late low by 2-3 points down to 3216.00 was too late to reflect strong-handed buyers. That doesn't prevent weak-handed rallying anyway, which was leveraged by Friday Factors like the morning's bias persisting through the noon hour. Another factor plays when exiting the afternoon bias environment above the noon hour high, to likely trend up into the close. The afternoon's 3296.25 high consolidated through the last half-hour. PM Traction formed by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high and entering the noon hour higher. Friday PM traction needs confirmation from Monday's open trending up if the influence is relevant. RSIs at Friday's 3296.25 high require a retest, and is likely to visit 3204.00-3209.00. Regardless, unless the weekend were exited with new sponsorship, Friday's rally should be retraced. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3295.00 signal would target 3309.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3277.00 signal would target 3266.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3306.00 3295.00 ...would target 3311.00 3309.00 Bias-down: under 3288.00 3277.00 ...would target 3277.00 3266.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE