Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's 2987.00 open was above Monday afternoon highs and on its way back up to the 2994.50 overnight high. But a negative reaction to news trended down throughout the day. The reaction's initial collapse probed under Monday's 2968.50 low. Friday's 2946.50 low was probed as the noon hour ended. The choppy afternoon fell to a very last-minute touch of 2937.00. Closing under 2951.00 has now put into play 2916.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Globex initially bounced back up to touch resistance at 2949.00, then ranged narrowly sideways through midnight. Narrowing. Europe's opens soon triggered another downleg that eventually came within 3 ticks of 2916.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The 2916.00 target is being met as soon as its attraction was confirmed by closing under 2951.00. Rather than making the decline likelier to extend, it creates the vulnerability to a corrective bounce this morning. Not yet touching 2916.00 post-open has room up to 2931.00 while remaining vulnerable to resuming the decline today. Not yet touching 2916.00 post-open could also resume the decline without delay. The difference will be signaled during the opening 15 minutes or sooner. Meanwhile, the decline may already have extended on its way down to 2898.00-2899.50. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2925.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2927.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

The question everyone is asking. The overnight low had come already to within 3-4 ticks of the 2916.00 objective. Its reaction up to the 2927.50 bias-down signal's resistance was already resolving down into the 2923.25 open. Then the first half-hour collapsed to 2899.00. That's a test of the 2898.00-2899.50 objective, which is the next lower objective under 2916.00. Closing under 2898.00 would put into play 2878.00. Only 3-minute RSI was oversold on its test, after having been persistently oversold all the way down. That enabled a reaction up with potential 5-11 points higher than it actually got, to 2908.50. Already a break lower has touched 2888.50.

Of course, the question everyone is asking -- or SHOULD be asking -- is whether this can develop into a crash. Recent highs were several weeks ago, the decline has covered significant ground in the past two weeks, and now August's consolidation is being probed under its "lower prior highs."

So, yes. This drop could be something quite different than a temporary correction. Extending to lower objectives could still be recovered, but probably not reversed up soon. That would require some sort of bottoming effort, and market participants seem to be closer to the early awareness stage than to the later fatigue stage of a complete leg.

Back above 2901.00 could try again to bounce, still having potential up to 2913.00 and 2920.00. Meanwhile, the trend remains down, and dangerous, with RSIs simultaneously oversold at the current low.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2893.00 2893.50 ...would target 2900.00 2900.50 Bias-down: under 2880.25 2881.00 ...would target 2874.25 2875.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

How will they end the day after their rest? The next lower objective at 2878.00 was tested, along with this afternoon's 2875.00 bias-down target, down to 2874.00. That's down 62 points from yesterday's 2940.50 cash session close. And that's a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the last swing from August's range. That's a lot of selling, and the selling has gotten steep and sustained. The direction is not a secret and it is not in doubt. The current opinion has been getting a lot of believers, and any bounces are likely to be temporary and resolved down. No-bias windows are difficult to enforce when the world's opinion is turning. Back under 2877.00 could resume the decline already.

The decline's past two sessions have been very productive. The two-week old 3024.50 high, which was a retest of its week-old high, spent just more than a week working almost 80 points lower to 2946.50. The bounce from Friday afternoon's low to Tuesday's opening high at 2994.00 spent two days falling 120 points, 150{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} as much, down to 2874.00. The afternoon bounced 23 points up to 2897.25 before dipping to 2888.00 at the cash session close, then to 2879.25 in reaction to a China Europe trade tariff headline. But the moral of the story is: there is obviously wide awareness of the market's recession theme. Bouncing from fresh lows through the entirety of Wednesday afternoon suggests the theme is now fully discounted. There's a moral to that story, too. Fully discounting the recession theme doesn't prevent overly-discounting it to lower prices. A bigger corrective bounce could test 2931.00 and still be vulnerable to at least retesting Wednesday's low. But resuming the decline without delay, dispensing with a corrective bounce, could shift the paradigm to liquidity concerns. Regardless, the market could be fully discounting the recession theme as of Wednesday's close, but still respond to more recession news. So, fears ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report could still be discounted buy lower lows Thursday, and/or reacted to on Friday. All part of a vicious cycle of selling for the sake of selling, trying not to be the last one holding the bag. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2894.25 2894.75 ...would target 2900.00 2900.50 Bias-down: under 2883.50 2884.25 ...would target 2876.75 2877.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.