Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's gap up above Friday afternoon's 2994.50 high immediately rejected Friday's dip into its 2985.00 close. Reacting down from attacking 3004.00 only touched 2994.50. That was still well into positive territory, expending a lot of selling pressure without gaining any traction for the effort. The balance of the session trended up relentlessly to touch 3007.50 before the close. The intraday trend's gradual slope camouflaged its rally. Closing under last Thursday's 3008.00 high similarly masked what was the highest close in four weeks. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Volatility and wide fluctuation have carved out a lot of room for today's session. Ranging narrowly at the Globex open soon spiked up 8 points to 3013.50. Ranging sideways through midnight was largely contained by 3010.00-3014.00, with just enough complexity to consider it a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires intraday retest. That didn't prevent the range's lower-end from giving way just ahead of Europe's opens, which were greeted at 3008.00 on the way down to 3001.00 -- well into yesterday's range. Its reaction has been testing yesterday's 3007.50 high as resistance. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) This weekend's Saturday Review described the likelihood for trending higher this week instead of lower. Monday's subdued rally nevertheless confirmed the likely near-term direction, and now overnight action has confirmed the likely near-term influence of 3013.00-3014.00. But while its test was anticipated, its test was anticipated to be along the path to 3035.00. Having collapsed back through the overnight surge's 3005.50 origin, the bullish scenario should already recover back above yesterday's range through the open to resume its rally. Still struggling to get back above yesterday's range could deepen the reversal down, but not necessarily reverse yesterday's rally. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3013.00 would be likely to trigger the 3011.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3008.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3003.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2999.50 bias-down signal.

And invalidation attempt fails. Yet... Reacting down from the overnight surge was already bouncing from 3001.00 back up to yesterday's 3007.50 high. Further improvement greeted the open at 3012.00, just under the 3013.50-3014.25 highs. Extending higher immediately wouldn't have been surprising. Sideways ranging that resolved up would have been surprising. In either case, the overnight surge had been retraced and repeated, so there was no bullish reason for the intraday crowd to try that. Reversing down would have been surprising. Not entirely, since 3013.00-3014.00 is the rally's next higher objective, and now it would have been tested both overnight and intraday. But the next higher objective at 3035.00 is still a likelier attraction. Nevertheless, the 3011.00 bias-up signal held its test to trigger no-bias. And put into play an offsetting test of the 2999.50 bias-down signal. That said, I'm suspicious of the offsetting test of the bias-down signal, since the overnight dip already was recovered entirely from its attack. Exiting the bias environment above its 3018.00 bias-up target would invalidate the attraction below altogether. But I'm willing to give further upside every benefit of the doubt, while it leaves 2999.50 "unfinished business" below. Meanwhile, the attraction in-play below does require honoring sell signals.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3014.50 3013.75 ...would target 3021.50 3020.75 Bias-down: under 3005.75 3005.25 ...would target 3000.00 2999.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Is this morning's objective weighing down the rally? The session's first several minutes ranged from 3012.50 down to 3008.50. This leg has been overlapped repeatedly since then, while the range has widened slightly to 3007.00-3014.00. We knew the next higher objective was 3013.00-3014.00, but the resistance here is interesting. Its overnight influence launched a steep, deep retracement. Its intraday test refuses to let go. Neither setup is letting the rally proceed. "Unfinished business" at this morning's 2999.50 bias-down signal can be left outstanding in this pattern while the rally extends to its next higher objective 3035.00. But the inability to extend is increasing the potential for testing 2999.50 before the rally resumes. I'll still give both buy signals and sell signals a benefit of the doubt, as breaking in either direction is equally credible.

This weekend's Saturday Review described the bullish setup that was making fresh highs likely. And the rally's next higher objective was 3013.00-3014.00. Monday's stealth rally was likely at least to probe higher intraday Tuesday, but the session was greeted at the 3013.00-3014.00 objective. It had been tested already overnight, and was influential in producing a reaction down to 3001.00. Recovering entirely before the open had meant that extending higher early would likely extend, and also that the bullish scenario was likely to extend early. The rally didn't extend early, so it didn't extend at all. But neither was it rejected, as the session ranged sideways 3-4 points either way around 3011.00. The ranging stopped abruptly thanks to a Brexit headline The break extended to 2997.00 before its first sizeable bounce up to 3005.00. The decline resumed to 2991.50-2992.50 through the close, representing the gap-to-gap retracement between Friday's close and Monday's open. Not extending higher all day Tuesday had already made a deeper pullback likely, in search of stronger-handed buyers below. The Brexit headline reaction skews with the pullback's timing, but it doesn't yet change whether Tuesday afternoon's collapse is only temporary, or beginning a deeper decline. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3001.25 3000.50 ...would target 3009.00 3008.25 Bias-down: under 2991.00 2990.50 ...would target 2984.00 2983.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.