Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday was greeted by a 70-point bounce up to 3291.00 that was reversing from sharply lower overnight lows at 3226.00. Still short of Thursday's close, Wednesday's bearish gap-and-pause setup nevertheless dictating down intraday. The open formed a Globex-flip that didn't trigger bullish, which the gap-and-pause context made unlikely. The morning's collapse to within 5 points of overnight lows was retraced up to 3266.50 during the noon hour. The afternoon's 1-point probe under the Globex low down to 3225.00 was retraced even higher up to 3282.50 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open gapped down 5 points under Friday's 3265.00 cash session close, and soon extended down to 3243.00. Reversing back up steadily started attacking Friday's late futures surge to 3277.50 before midnight, hovering there through Europe's opens. A breakout has extended up to 3322.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Sunday night's initial 34-point drop, attacking the 3343.00 bias-down target to within 1 tick, confirmed that Friday's last-minute and post-close surge was weak-handed. Now its recovery is attacking Thursday's 3325.00 late high, also testing Wednesday's 3321.00 gap open. Still being within their 2-day range doesn't yet disprove the overnight rally is also weak-handed. Gapping up above Friday's highs must be maintained and improved to suggest a low is forming, albeit launching from a premature and shallow bottom. That said, it's still a rally, even if starting a more substantial weak-handed rally to correct last week's ongoing decline. Its next likely higher objective would be the gap-to-gap retracement from last Tuesday's close up to 3353.50. Its last likely objective would be 3427.00 which is the 3-week decline's highest allowance for being only a correction. Initially reacting down post-open wouldn't be unusual regardless of which direction it intends to resolve. A very last-minute extra push to fresh overnight highs would make an immediate short-entry even more attractive for at least a morning dip. I outline this path and others in the Market Tour. Very high-profile and reliably influential econ reports are scheduled post-open. Otherwise, further improving through the open would suggest a bigger bounce underway. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3297.25 would be likely to exceed the 3293.50 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3284.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 3278.25 bias-up signal.

Overnight high retested. The path I had traced during Market Tour was followed, almost precisely, albeit delayed. Pulling back from the 3322.50 overnight high tested the 3293.50 bias-up target as support, and bounced to probe the high by 1 point. Its reaction has retraced the 3302.00 opening print. This setup was optimal if already testing the overnight high pre-open. Then a sell signal would have been immediately actionable because it would have likely slid immediately. Delaying the slide may have enabled a position of strength to form.

The position of strength comes from already having probed the 3315.50 pre-10:15 high. This still could have been invalidated by isolating that probe back under its 3312.75 10:15 print at 10:30.

Breaking under 3312.75 just 1-2 minutes after 10:30 doesn't qualify as Isolation. But I'm giving it a benefit of the doubt anyway, once, for staging the morning reversal expected from a pre-open retest of the overnight high. I'm also adjusting buy signals lower in case the bias window is exited above Friday's highs. That would be a lot of selling pressure expended, without damaging the recovery's chart, with higher highs next targeting 3344.50 and 3353.50.

MON P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3316.75 signal would target 3325.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3291.50 signal would target 3280.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3324.50 3316.75 ...would target 3334.00 3325.25 Bias-down: under 3297.25 3291.50 ...would target 3288.50 3280.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Sellers get a second wind. Evidence is mounting that the ongoing bounce from Friday's lows is weak-handed. Last night's opening drop was recovered. The pre-open drop was recovered. So will the post-open drop be recovered, too?

My pattern had formed -- recovering to the overnight high up to 3323.50 and then reversing down from there through the morning. But it formed late, and the 10:15-10:30 segment was isolated 1-2 minutes too late to be reliable. But that didn't prevent the morning bias environment from trending down to 3294.00 anyway.

Bouncing 16 points up to 3310.50 into the noon hour was already reversed into a renewed bias-down under the afternoon 3280.75 bias-down target. Now 3272.00 is being tested. The setup is behaving as if it were triggered timely. Still, expending even more selling pressure to be down 50 points from the open's highs has yet to reverse into negative territory. Each timing window's entry offers another opportunity for the sellers to start attracting counter-trend sponsorship instead of reinforcements. Be careful not to tolerate much of a bounce if short, in case of a short-squeeze through the close.

Monday's intraday price action accomplished only one thing not done overnight. Because overnight was incapable of doing it. That was to close above Friday's highs. Other than this, the session is defined as backing-and-filling. But closing above Friday's highs still leaves price within the now 4-day range, and the range's 3327.00-3334.00 highs weren't even touched intraday. Also, the bullish PM traction setup didn't trigger, despite spending the entire session in positive territory. Gapping up Tuesday above Monday's highs would be credible for extending higher intraday. Last week's Tue-Wed gap-to-gap retracement is centered around 3353.50. Its extension would target 3427.00. Meanwhile, not gapping up remains vulnerable to retesting last week's lows under 3320.00 to the 3300.00 area, however temporarily. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3311.75 signal would target 3325.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3290.75 signal would target 3278.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3319.50 3311.75 ...would target 3333.00 3325.25 Bias-down: under 3298.50 3290.75 ...would target 3286.00 3278.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE