Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday's opening surge from Friday's 3065.00 cash session close was extended up relentlessly overnight to attack 3084.00. The last 5 points signaled that upside momentum was in jeopardy by its steep slope discounting all near-term optimism. But enough residual optimism was available to prevent Monday morning's dips from fulfilling an otherwise nearby 3073.50 pullback target. Although ranging well into positive territory, Monday's session trended down. The final hour finally met it down to 3072.50 where RSIs diverged positively. Meanwhile, Friday's new trend high close fulfilled its requirement for an eventual higher close. And Friday's breakout was confirmed by a second consecutive higher close that now requires another eventual higher close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Bouncing slightly into Monday's close was quickly rewarded by a China trade headline. Its 12-point spike up to fresh highs attacking 3086.00 never developed any complexity to replace Sunday night's 3083.75 "new Globex trend extreme" that requires intraday retest. Its retracement down to 3077.00 defined a choppy sideways range. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Confirmation sessions that trend intraday opposite to the original breakout still qualify as confirming the breakout, and still requires an eventual higher close. But the opposite intraday trend makes an interim correction likely first. A pullback could be brief or multi-session, or avoided altogether by greeting Tuesday in rally mode. The current indication to gap up is still within yesterday's range, and could resolve  in either direction. There's no bullish reason to revisit yesterday's 3073.50 pullback, and its break could extend down to the 3044.50 area.Otherwise, just triggering bias-up should maintain the rally's momentum targeting Sunday night's 3083.75 "new Globex trend extreme," which would likely be retested up to 3088.00 or even to 3093.50. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3081.00 would be likely to trigger the 3079.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3077.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

tl;dr: Not a very credible no-bias. Overnight action was already ignoring today's vulnerability to being a pullback session, or to it starting a pullback leg. Ignoring the downside potential by hovering throughout the night above the 3079.00 bias-up signal and repeatedly probing yesterday's 3083.75 "new Globex trend extreme." But ignoring the downside vulnerability never developed into a rally. Overnight action was otherwise contained by yesterday's highs, and the open wasn't greeted in rally mode. The 3079.00 opening print was also the bias-up signal. Price collapsed immediately to fill the gap back down to yesterday's 3075.50 close. Hovering at the filled gap was stability, but stability following a surge or collapse tends to be only temporary. That didn't prevent a knee-jerk reaction up to 3082.00 on the 10:00 econ reports -- retesting the bias-up signal -- but the surge's weak base and the headline reaction's weak-handed sponsorship doomed the bounce to failure. It quickly resolved down to the 3071.00 bias-down signal.

Bias-down was not touched at 10:30 which would have triggered noN-bias. It wasn't triggered which would have put into play its 3064.25 bias-down target. I'm suspicious of the late no-bias that did triggered, despite touching the bias-down signal 1 minute before and after 10:30.

So, we still don't know whether today will contain the pullback, or start it. Back above 3077.00 would suggest the latter. Otherwise, downside potential to 3044.50 remains alive.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3078.75 3077.00 ...would target 3085.75 3084.00 Bias-down: under 3072.00 3070.25 ...would target 3064.50 3062.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Holding support. This morning's 3071.00 bias-down signal as support. Now the noon hour has only touched this afternoon's 3077.00 bias-up signal, triggering a second no-bias. Meanwhile, there was no bullish reason to revisit yesterday's 3073.50 pullback target, not unless it were going to be rejected abruptly. Its test has not been rejected abruptly. But neither has it broken lower, at least not yet. That door remains open, to probe fresh lows coming out of the bias environment, on the way to a deeper pullback low. Otherwise, rallying out of the bias environment would be credible for already ending the pullback, and trying to resume the rally into the close.

Monday's pattern had forecast Tuesday would be a pullback session. That wasn't at all obvious overnight, which had developed exclusively above the morning's bias-up signal. But the Globex session's early spike up to 3086.00 never extended while only ranging choppily sideways, repeatedly holding Monday's 3083.00-3084.00 highs as resistance. Tuesday's open collapsed in 2-3 legs that tested 3070.00. Flat-to-higher ranging through the afternoon no-bias environment, back up to its 3077.00 bias-up signal, ultimately finished 4 points under Monday's 3076.50 close. Wednesday's session, being the session that follows a forecasted pullback, has three likely templates, each one volatile and with predictable calculations. The rally is likely to resume, whether immediately, or following an initial attempt to extend the pullback. Upside attractions are 3084.00, 3088.00, and 3093.50. That initial attempt to extend the pullback could succeed, which would have potential down to 3044.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3080.00 3077.75 ...would target 3086.25 3084.00 Bias-down: under 3069.25 3067.25 ...would target 3062.75 3060.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.