Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 11-06-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday morning's 19-point slide fulfilled multiple objectives that had been attracting price down, inhibiting the rally from resuming. Bouncing through the noon hour was unable to extend, and the afternoon only ranged choppily, once the next day's Employment Situation report began paralyzing price action. Overnight action's new info... The overnight 2092.00-2095.00 range was narrower than most intraday timing windows. First dipping to the range's lower-end and then bouncing to its upper-end is now dipping again to its lower-end. But it's otherwise only noise, continuing to be inhibited ahead of this morning's Employment report. If, then... Having neutralized the "unfinished business below" yesterday, the rally is free to resume. Son, not resuming the rally would be likely instead to extend down more substantially, if not also steeply. Resuming the rally need not be either substantial or steep, simply obvious -- probing and extending to new recovery highs. First Trade... There are no preliminary levels ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Recovering the post-open drop would have consequences. Another pre-open dip having attacked the Payrolls' 2082.00 low. The open was greeted back above 2088.00. Its recovery extended to 2096.25. RSIs improved throughout, so it was surprising not have extended higher. But the 2095.00 pullback limit was violated and the 2091.00 sell signal was triggered, on the way to sharply lower lows at 2077.50. This renewed the bias-down signal by breaking under the 2085.50 bias-down target through 10:15. The renewed bias-down target was met already at 2079.00.

Renewing the bias-down made lower lows likely to test the 2070.00 area. But a bounce is already testing the 2091.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Exiting the bias environment above it would marginalize sellers for the day. And probably for a lot longer, ultimately being yet another failed probe under 2088.00.

Exiting the bias environment back under its 2085.50 bias-down target would not reject the bias-down. Sellers would not be marginalized. And the 2070.00 area would remain in-play.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2097.00 2091.00 ...would target  2103.50  2097.50 Bias-down: under  2086.25  2080.25 ...would target 2081.75  2075.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) The potential for a bottom was broadsided Friday by the Employment Situation report. There was no unfinished business below, so extending down anyway and extending down sharply requires a bottom to recover immediately, if at all. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Greeting Friday's Employment Situation report while testing the 1106.50 support reacted down sharply to 1084.50, next targeting 1082.00. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The slide extended Friday in reaction to the Employment Situation report, testing new lows at 14.70. New lows on a Friday tend at least to be probed intraday on Monday. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Fulfilling the minimum 153-25 target Thursday was never rejected before Friday's Employment Situation report, which triggered an even deeper drop down to 151-25. The new bounce limit is 152-20 and 153-16. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Extending down steeply is required of the break under 46.00 to confirm it is valid and targeting new lows. Friday's gap down tested 44.25 intraday, which is a proxy for ranging narrowly sideways. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Closing above 2.31 Thursday needed confirmation from closing above 2.37 Friday, or at least positive, that a new upleg is forming. Friday did probe it, but was still testing it at the close to avoid confirming a recovery.

Ultimately, Friday's session ended while still testing 2088.00. Its recovery would have told us to be long for the start of a big ride to new highs. Closing under 2088.00 would have told us to expect a dip to the 2070.00 area, first. Still overlapping it at the close has instead forced us to be reactionary instead of proactive. If the rally wants to resume without delay, then Monday will gap up above Thursday's highs. Otherwise, fresh lows come first. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhfvfx

We'll discuss more about the bigger picture and review stock requests at this weekend's Saturday Review. I'll send its link overnight.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2104.25 2098.25 ...would target  2109.75  2104.00 Bias-down: under  2093.00  2087.25 ...would target 2088.25  2082.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.