Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday was greeted by a 14-point overnight slide to 3104.50 that was recovered to open at 3113.25. This was forming a bullish Isolation setup until a momentary blip-down under Tuesday's 3112.75 low to 3111.00. The dip failed to extend down and its reaction to 3118.50 failed to extend up. Anxiousness ahead of the afternoon's FOMC Minutes release was already paralyzing the market. This probably exacerbated the effect of a China trade headline that triggered a collapse to 3090.75. Rallying into and out of the FOMC Minutes peaked just short of the 3111.00 headline reaction's origin. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Would the market simply flat-line with out China headlines, or would it actually trend? We may never know. A pro-Hong Kong headline triggered an 11-point gap down at the Globex open. Its low attacked 3093.00, reacted up to 3103.50, and fell back down to within 2-3 ticks of Wednesday's 3090.75 low. That was the first 3 hours, time for another China trade headline which triggered a 13-point spike up to 3107.50 30 minutes later. Ranging choppily sideways through Europe's opens later surged to 3112.25 in reaction to another favorable China trade headline, which is where the market had first begun anticipating yesterday's unfavorable headline. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) That's two favorable China trade headlines in a row. Maybe someone lost track, or missed their turn? It's premature to assume this is a new trend of favorable China trade headlines, so be prepared for an unfavorable headline. Meanwhile, neither buyers nor sellers gained traction yesterday, so trending this morning depends greatly on gapping open. A greater burden of proof is on buyers to extend Wednesday afternoon's recovery. More so, not less, since overnight action eventually expended so much energy to restore that possibility, which earlier overnight action had threatened. All of that overnight choppiness in yesterday afternoon's range has chipped away at any support along the way back down to yesterday's low, so a downdraft could resemble an air pocket -- and an intraday probe under yesterday's low could extend the corrective decline into the weekend. Otherwise, any shallower post-open dip could still extend the bounce up to 3115.00, while gapping open above 3115.00 could qualify for attracting reinforcements to trend up through the morning. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3111.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3113.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3106.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3103.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3099.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Air pocket turbulence. Pre-open action probed fresh overnight highs attacking 3115.00 resistance to within 2 ticks. That proved sufficient to end the bounce, negating my intent to short its intraday test. Post-open action continued the bearish scenario of dropping sharply if the range back down to yesterday's low had formed an air pocket. The 3108.50 flat open collapsed to 3100.00-3105.00, and then collapsed again. Yesterday's low was barely attacked to within 3 points at 3093.50. And now a bounce is testing the 3103.00 bias-down signal as resistance. Back under 3099.25 would start to signal a probe under yesterday's low underway. Not containing the probe would likely have consequences into and out of the weekend. Only holding the lows would not yet reject an eventual break lower. Closing above 3115.00 may still be the only bullish scenario.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3107.00 3106.25 ...would target 3113.25 3112.50 Bias-down: under 3095.25 3094.75 ...would target 3088.50 3088.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Waiting for another shoe to drop from China? Perhaps the market has become too addicted to China trade headlines. They're less likely to come this late in the day. But the market has only crept higher from the morning's 3093.50 low, attacking the afternoon 3106.25 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. And not triggering it. Fresh afternoon highs would trigger an inflection point, potentially up to 3111.00, albeit doomed to failure for its timing being "no-bias trending." Any later would be free to extend. Meanwhile, this being a no-bias environment with room down to its 3094.75 bias-down signal. The nearest sell signal is 3102.50. Not yet recovering positive territory into the final hour would be vulnerable to attacking session lows, if not to resuming the post-open decline.

Thursday's inside day began with a potential air pocket below that was largely probed, but not entirely down to 3093.50, and not back under Wednesday's 3090.75 low. Lower lows remain possible since the open's collapse was retraced almost entirely but not back above Wednesday's 3108.50 close. And not back into positive territory, which the final hour exploited by dropping 9 points down to 3098.50. Like Thursday, trending up Friday morning depends upon gapping up to and/or through 3115.00. Thursday's pre-open action attacked it before reversing down sharply, so there's no bearish reason to revisit it -- especially with the weekend bearing down. Trending down doesn't require gapping down. And there's no bullish reason to revisit 3091.00-3093.00, except to trap shorts through the open if possible. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

  FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3109.75 3109.25 ...would target 3115.50 3115.00 Bias-down: under 3099.75 3099.25 ...would target 3093.50 3093.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.