Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 12-08-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's rally was literally awesome. Its 2210.25 buy signal was likely to reach the 2220.00 objective put into play two weeks prior by closing above 2192.00. It was met coming out of the noon hour, but the rally hardly skipped a beat. The afternoon's bias-up signal was renewed, and extended even higher to 2241.25. Yet, no traction was gained for the effort, despite the 3:10-3:20 proxy window temporarily probing fresh highs. Overnight action's new info... Never seeming concerned with the next day's ECB events, Wednesday's rally left nothing on the table for Globex. Two late afternoon tests of 2240.00 each had reacted down to 2236.00. The second reaction extended only slightly lower into the Globex open to pierce 2235.00. Firming up to 2240.00 has reacted back down to 2235.00. Price is fluctuating around unchanged as this morning's ECB policy decision nears. If, then... Closing above 2220.00 puts into play higher objectives, if the close above 2220.00 can be maintained for a second consecutive session today. The next higher objective at 2244.75 was attacked already so closely, that its room for noise up to 2252.50 would be as likely to be met. Closing back under 2220.00 Thursday would negate the higher objective, and open the door to an almost equally steep reversal down into next week -- no matter how deeply price had reversed already Thursday. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2241.25 would be likely to trigger the 2240.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2238.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2231.00 would be likely to trigger the 2232.25 bias-down signal.

No real follow-through, or rejection. Pre-open action during Draghi's remarks and Q&A was atypically shallow, both up and down. Yesterday's 2241.25 (basis Dec, 2236.00 basis Mar) high was barely pierced, twice, neither time reversing down. Fresh post-open highs attacked 2244.00, but reacted down 7 points. While failing to trigger the 2240.00 bias-up signal at 10:15, no reversal down has emerged. And 2240.00 continues attracting price to it even now. A break higher could probe fresh session highs, as "no-bias trending" that would require being retraced. Although some sort of follow-through to yesterday's rally is likely, this morning's higher highs would suffice if not reversed before the noon hour. Meanwhile, back under 2236.50 would have room to the 2232.25 bias-down signal without yet requiring any retracement up. All prices above are basis Dec, which is trading at a 5.25 premium to Mar. We'll switch to Mar when the morning bias environment has lapsed.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2245.25 2239.50 ...would target  2252.25  2246.50 Bias-down: under  2236.75  2231.00 ...would target 2230.75  2224.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The rally holds and advances, one window at a time. (Charts and price references all basis Mar.) It took its time today, but the rally has resumed. Or, is trying to resume Fluctuating choppily around yesterday's high lasted through the morning and into noon, before finally starting to firm. And then suddenly surging. Now yesterday's high has been probed by almost 9 points up to 2245.00 (basis Mar). This afternoon's bias-up has triggered. This morning's bias-up signal was tested but not triggered. The grace period missed being invoked by only 1-2 ticks. So, an offsetting test of its its bias-down signal won't be considered "unfinished business below." This doesn't mean it can't be met, or won't, sooner or later. But it's not an outstanding attraction below. However, there's a new attraction above. It is this afternoon's 2246.50 bias-up target, put into play by triggering the 2239.50 bias-up signal. It will become "unfinished business above" if left outstanding, unless the bias environment were to lapse under 2236.00. Stay on high alert for the ongoing potential of reversing down sharply today. This risk won't be any lesser tomorrow, but it would likelier recover if avoided today. Avoiding a sharp reversal down would also confirm yesterday's break above 2220.00. Closing under it today would start to seal a top.

Wednesday's close above the 2215.00 objective (basis Mar, 2220.00 basis Dec) was not rejected Thursday. The next higher objective in-play still has a little room above at 2147.25. Any higher would likely target 2257.50. None of which must be maintained through the close. There is otherwise no other "unfinished business above." If the rally is going to entrench itself, then closing at a new trend extreme on Fridays is its next opportunity. Meanwhile, features to this rally's origin still make it vulnerable to reversing down sharply, especially when the end comes. The ultimate reversal's origin matters, too, and gapping down sharply would not qualify for launching more than a temporary pullback. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2248.25 2242.50 ...would target  2253.00  2247.25 Bias-down: under  2240.75  2235.00 ...would target 2236.00  2230.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.