Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's gap down to 2057.50 tried extending. Twice, to 2051.50 and 2050.25, with an interim bounce to 2062.00. And that was just the first hour. A surge into positive territory didn't extend, but its reaction down was supported by 2057.50. So were subsequent reactions down,interrupted by shallower and shallower probes above 2065.00. The close was testing 2062.00 as support. Overnight action's new info... Overnight action has tried rallying, and declining, but neither is extending. First, a mirror image of Tuesday afternoon's choppy ranging repeatedly attempted shallow probes above 2065.00. Its reactions back down were repeatedly supported by 2060.00. Until they weren't. That's when the last probe higher through Europe's opens was reversed down 16 points from 2068.50 to 2052.25. A recovery attempt has tested 2062.00 as resistance. If, then... Yesterday's productive selling was isolated to the morning, but the afternoon's buying gained no traction. These elements create the potential for a recovery, which must be triggered by gapping up. The overnight dip doesn't preclude a gap up -- its reaction is now testing positive territory, and there is plenty of time to extend several more points before the open. But gapping down would be vulnerable to duplicating yesterday morning's probe of fresh lows. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2058.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2056.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2054.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2069.50 would be likely to trigger the 2067.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

REMINDER: I'm away from the screens today between 1:30-3:15 ET... back for the final hour.. The pre-open dip to 2049.75 held its test of yesterday morning's lows, greeting the open at 2054.50. Recall that was a preliminary level noted in the First Trade blog post. Recovering it or not through the open would at least be predictive of the bias-down signal. 2058.25 was another preliminary level, and it was also tested during the opening 15 minutes. Its first reaction down was brief, held 2054.50, and reversed up sharply to 2069.00. The opening surge's template played out as much as it did yesterday. The only difference was its low's timing, this time being pre-open instead of post-open. But their similarity is their Achilles heel -- the setup should launch almost precisely at the opening tick. This morning's surge, unlike like yesterday's, isn't done. The 2074.25 bias-up target was met and held, but is now being probed to attack the 2080.50 renewed bias-up target. A pullback to 2065.00-2066.00 is possible, regardless of the potential for extending higher this afternoon, if not also because that upside potential would benefit from the refueling.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2063.75  2062.50 ...would target  2068.75  2067.75 Bias-down: under  2053.75 2052.75 ...would target 2049.25  2048.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

DON'T FORGET: I'm away today between 1:30 - 3:15 ET. A runaway rally this morning wasn't likely. The immediate surge's template did kick-in, and it was very productive. The 2050.00 pre-open low rallied 30 points to attack 2080.00. None of which changed that the origin's timing was early. Again. Yesterday's was late and this morning's was early. Both were retraced entirely. Actually, this morning's doomed rally was reversed.

Besides its timing, this morning's rally was doomed for originating above 2048.00. Now, without ever having put into play 2048.00, its break has extended down to with 3 ticks of the next lower support of 2035.00.

That low was met with the noon hour having elapsed 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. Reversals there and then tend to hold. That is, they tend to hold a retest, especially if RSIs were to diverge positively. Already attacking 2044.00, a bounce has room up to 2048.00. Not holding the low's retest -- down to 2030.50 -- would next target 2027.00 and 2022.00.

Wednesday afternoon's bias environment ranged narrowly, 4 points either way of 2042.00 (Dec). A last-hour surge tested 2048.00 resistance up to 2050.50. But 2048.00 held as resistance, pushing back down to 2042.00. Wednesday's 2035.00 (Dec, 2027.50 basis Mar) support is likely to be retested. It's not required, but there's an attraction down to 2030.50 (Dec, 2022.50 basis Mar) . Isolating its test to the overnight, or the open, or even to the morning's bias environment, would enable the balance of the session to rally. Meanwhile, having failed to gain traction Wednesday, gapping up Thursday would serve by proxy, and avoid fresh lows. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfjsjy

The new Omnijoin configuration will be made available again this evening, and I'll post its link in the chaRTroom if you want to try it then. Meanwhile, monitor overnight Globex trading at: non-xp ilinc

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2049.50 2040.75 ...would target  2055.25  2046.50 Bias-down: under  2038.75 2030.00 ...would target 2032.00  2023.25 Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL ES IS BASIS MAR FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.