Day Trading – Real Time Market Updates - 12-21-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Already down substantially to 2032.00 and 2025.00 through Thursday's cash session and futures closes, Thursday night's flat-to-lower ranging down to 2012.00  greeted Friday's Quadruple Expiration open well off of Thursday's 2073.00 highs. The session trended down to 1994.00 and 1991.00 through the cash session and futures closes. WedEX had inverted to bearish. Overnight action's new info... Gapping up Sunday night to 1997.00-2001.00 ranged choppily flight-to-higher through Europe's opens.  A surge testing 2012.00 and attack on 2014.00 each were interrupted by dipping to 2009.00. Now another bounce attacking 2012.00 has formed a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern -- just now breaking lower. If, then... Gapping up and trending up overnight -- Is follow-through from Friday's plunge hereby avoided? Three things to consider. 1) WedEX influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning, but not the period between them. Gapping up would still be vulnerable to trending down throughout the morning. That downtrending can bottom upon filling the gap back to Friday's close when the bias environment begins lapsing. 2) Trending down into Friday's close can be rejected by gapping up above Friday afternoon's 2014.25 high to form a "session-long rally" setup. That would invalidate the WedEX. By the same token, rallying to the brink of session-long rally but not triggering would be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. And 3) exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment like gapping sharply is often a sentiment extreme... So, a morning-long drop back down to Friday's lows is still likely, but that could form a durable bottom. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2012.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2014.75 bias-up target at 10:15, or to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2007.75 would be likely to trigger the 2005.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2004.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gap up not extending, or rejected. The pre-open pullback to 2006.25 was recovered through the open to retest the 2013.75 overnight high. This morning's 2014.75 bias-up target was attacked to within 1 tick, but never touched. It won't be considered "unfinished business above" if never actually met. But the 2014.75 bias-up target is in-play. This is a bias-up environment, since the 2005.25 bias-up signal triggered. A post-open dip attacked it to within 2 ticks, but didn't break lower. The bearish WedEX can influence price down anyway. But that should be triggered under 2009.25, if at all. Exiting the bias environment above its 2014.75 bias-up target could marginalize sellers through Christmas. Otherwise, filling the gap back down to Friday's close remains outstanding.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES2007.50 Bias-up: above  2011.25 2001.75 ...would target  2017.00 2007.50 Bias-down: under  2004.50  1995.00 ...would target 1999.25 1989.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Gap back to Friday's cash session essentially filled. The bearish WedEX's influence ultimately sent the morning down. It wasn't simply from the open, but it was done. Essentially. Friday's cash session close was attacked to within 1 point at this morning's 1995.75 low. And it's all just noise within Friday's last downleg. The overnight and open highs attacked and tested Friday afternoon's 2014.25 high, so neither end of the last downleg has been probed. If Friday's actual 1994.00 and 1991.00 lows aren't actually probed, then the lows haven't actually held a test. So, the pattern is no more bullish now than it was at Friday's close. Actually probing Friday's low and recovering it would be more bullish, as holiday seasonality starts undermining sponsorship. That's still possible, but it hasn't yet been done. Bouncing anyway is possible, too, but not reliable.

Monday's last surge got carried away with itself. Back above 1998.25 was already likely to end the afternoon's slide from 2008.00. But the likely consequence was just gravitating up to 2006.00. Instead, the last half-hour trended up to 2012.00. Post-close action surged to 2016.00. New session highs were not likely. The morning's range did hold as resistance. Without the late squeeze gaining traction for the effort, it only expended all available buying pressure. Retesting Friday's 1991.00 low remains intact. More so, its retest should begin by gapping down to and through Monday's lows. Holiday seasonality is a wild card. There is time for a downdraft Tuesday before that seasonality tries to seal the lower-end of a range. And regardless of Monday closing at 2006.00, 2012.00 or 2016.00, retesting Friday's 1991.00 range Tuesday is likely to begin by gapping down sharply. The alternative is to gap up above 2027.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbmrcv

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc