Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday night's narrow overnight range had dipped only slightly and briefly before Friday's expriration open, and before bouncing back to earlier overnight highs testing 2492.00. A post-open headline reaction surged to 2508.00. Having stretched the rubber band once again, the market snapped back down, extending eventually down to new lows at 2409.25. The afternoon was influenced by a bearish WedEX, as liquidity evaporated ahead of a 3-1/2 day weekend. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's Globex open gapped down to meet the 2402.00-2405.00 target that had been established intraday Friday. Bouncing back to unchanged extended through a 2419.00 buy signal on the way to its 2434.00 target. A 7-1/2 dip was recovered to retest the high into Europe's opens. But any influence of ES stability was quickly absorbed, and a 13-point dip just begat a 31-point collapse down to fresh lows at 2395.50 -- testing this morning's 2398.25 bias-down target, and having sufficient complexity to form a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires intraday retest. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Last night I published a few thoughts about the potential for a "bottom," (here, if you haven't yet read it). Its two primary thrusts are that 1) we should be aware that a near-term low can appear at any time, and 2) a near-term low can be under Friday's close by triple digits, perhaps 2,000 Dow points or more. Today's restrained volume and early close make it a wild card -- it's difficult to get sponsorship that starts trending, and difficult to stop if it starts. Regardless of the holiday factors, delaying this overnight reaction helps today to avoid an UNusual meltdown. Another usual meltdown today would have room down to the next lower objective at 2345.00-2361.00. An intraday rally is unlikely due to the bearish WedEX influence, but 2454.00 would be its likely objective. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2416.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2403.00 would be likely to trigger the 2405.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2424.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2421.00 bias-up target.

Post-open drop extends the decline, before being recovered. Overnight action had resumed the decline, rejecting the overnight bounce. Friday's 2409.25 low and the 2401.00 Globex open were probed down to 2390.75. Bouncing back above Friday's late low to 2414.00 resolved down through the open.

Sharply. A blip-up to Friday's 2409.25 low collapsed down to 2368.00. Which is already within 7 points of the decline's next lower objective at 2345.00-2361.00.

Now a bounce has recovered it all -- all of the post-open drop, up to a fresh post-open high at 2412.50. Back under 2400.00 would start to signal the bounce failing.

The bearish WedEX makes the bounce likely to fail, and the morning likely to trend back down. Holiday factors make today a wild card, and the WedEX less reliable. Just closing in negative territory would satisfy the bearish WedEX, but a more bearish production than that would still be appropriate. But the wild card may have absorbed sellers already. Surging off of the lows is an example. Back above 2309.25 again could trigger a more substantial rally leg, but the morning remains vulnerable to another downdraft.

HAVE A MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Reminder: I'm away from the screens Wednesday morning, but chaRTroom will be open. Monday's early hours was the rare Christmas Eve session worth trading. Two signaled downlegs were very productive, and the next lower objective started being tested. Sunday night's rally up to 2434.50 reflected optimism, but not the same "hope springs eternal" optimism as last week. It was more a relief that Sunday night's gap down had been relatively shallow, and relatively brief. Which is no more valid or credible for reversing momentum up. So momentum reversed back down, sharply, probing the Globex open's 2401.00 low by 10 points. The post-open drop to 2368.00 was recovered entirely to a fresh post-open high at 2412.50, but fresh lows were being attacked by noon. And then extended through the close, probing the objective's 2345.00 lower-end down to 2340.50. Fulfilling the decline's next lower objective doesn't equate to being a buy signal. It doesn't even necessarily mean the decline is slowing its pace. Europe has yet to process this drop -- the last we saw of them was retracing a relief rally. Wednesday's chances are almost even for being either a capitulation session, or another hopeful bounce. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. chaRTroom will re-open Christmas night with Globex at 6:00 PM ET.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2360.50 2361.00 ...would target 2372.00 2372.50 Bias-down: under 2344.75 2345.00 ...would target 2335.50 2335.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.