Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 01-09-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... While all eyes have been on Dow 20k, which was attacked Friday to within 1 point, S&Ps fulfilled our long-awaited retest of the 2273.00 prior high. Its 2275.50 objective was probed up to 2277.00 during the noon hour. The balance of the afternoon fluctuated choppily around 2275.50, back down to 2273.00, and then another couple of points lower into the close. Closing above 2275.50 would have put into play the next higher objective, but there's still room for noise up to 2278.25. Meanwhile, also holding the 2273.00 prior high robs the rally of some momentum. But Friday's close was the trend's highest, yet. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open began with an errant tick touching 2270.50, and then reversed up steadily into Europe's opens. Attacking 2275.50 resistance to within 1 tick was vulnerable, and that vulnerability has resulted in a 7-1/2 point slide to 2267.75. If, then... New trend high closes on Fridays require at least an eventual higher close before a durable decline would be credible. Which doesn't prevent a near-term correction from beginning  And if a correction is beginning, it may last only several day, or else it could last several weeks. Its first day can help to forecast which. Gapping down doesn't prevent recovering intraday -- in fact, the 2268.50 target of Friday's late sell signal triggered under 2273.75 was met and held (so far) overnight. Recovering today can't yet be dismissed, let alone already producing that next higher close. Regardless, fresh highs could be probed today without being maintained through the close. Otherwise, triggering a bias-down today would be likely if a correction is already underway. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2273.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning's 2275.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2268.50 would be unlikely to trigger this morning's 2265.50 bias-down signal.

Overnight slide extends, to a point. Fresh lows were tested pre-open down to 2267.25. The slide's slope immediately steepened on the way down to 2263.50. Its reaction back up to 2267.25 held, and defined fluctuation around the 2265.50 bias-down signal. 2265.50 was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It happened to be recovered through 10:30 to trigger late no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2275.50 bias-up signal is in-play. The bullish scenario is that these two most recent thrusts downward reflect distribution. No argument from me. But they're still digging deeply enough early enough for long enough to reflect strong hands reversing the trend down. Back under 2264.25 would suggest otherwise. The late signal hasn't yet produced a fresh post-open high, so its objective would be moot. And a multi-session downleg would likely be underway.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2275.75 2270.50 ...would target  2280.75  2275.50 Bias-down: under  2269.50  2264.25 ...would target  2264.25  2259.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open bounce stops short. And then stops. Gapping down to 2268.00 and extended down to 2263.50 was recovered during the morning bias environment back up to 2270.25. That's 1 points short of filling the gap back up to Friday's close. So, pessimistically short. The noon hour and the afternoon bias environment have ranged back down to 2266.00. Stuck in negative territory, but not extending down. So, ineffectual pessimism. Each is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Potentially, because it must be exploited within certain time frames, like a timing window's exit. A timing window is within view of exiting now, and fresh afternoon lows have touched 2264.50. Any deeper through the bottom of the hour could trend down into Wednesday morning. Back above 2267.75 by the top of the hour would more likely reverse into positive territory, targeting at least this morning's "unfinished business above" at 2275.50.

Two pessimistic observations became three late Monday afternoon. First, the morning's bounce had stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday's close. Next, two timing windows ranged flat-to-lower without actually breaking. Then, they did break lower, but several minutes before appropriate. Pessimism, potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Unless exploited through a relevant timing window. Which Monday's close tried to do, but failed -- attacking the morning's low to within 1 tick, but not probing lower. A contrarian bullish template could still exploit the pessimism in one of two or three ways. Either by isolating a fresh low to the overnight that opens Tuesday back above Monday's lows, or by gapping up above Monday's highs. Quickly rejecting a post-open probe of fresh lows is also possible, but not likely.

A rally's objectives would be Monday morning's 2275.50 "unfinished business above," and a new trend high close.

Otherwise, any other template essentially points down into Wednesday morning. Some point lower for longer. But any downdraft here is still considered to be only temporary. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2276.75  2271.50 ...would target  2280.75  2275.50 Bias-down: under  2268.25 2263.00 ...would target  2262.75  2257.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.