Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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Through the prior close... An amazing day. Thursday began by plunging 24 points from its pre-open high to new lows at 1871.00. Being early enough to attract counter-trend sponsorship, a reaction bounced back above prior lows. And then higher. A lot higher. The afternoon's bias-up signal target was exceeded to test 1927.25, with time for reacting down to 1911.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's closing dip extended down overnight. A lot lower, attacking 1876.00, which is 5 points within yesterday's low. And that's a 105-point round-trip in 20 hours. If, then... In a week of least likelihoods, NOT already retracing all of yesterday's recovery would be surprising. Sarcasm aside, we first began discussing Wednesday morning the potential for a pattern of least likely paths, when Tuesday afternoon's rally was retraced despite holding up through the open. Bouncing yesterday morning wasn't unlikely, but testing both bias targets is rare, and trending the afternoon prior to expiration is a least likelihood, too. Expiration is no doubt a catalyst. It is a wild card, less about likelihoods and more about vulnerabilities. Where three-day holiday weekends often inhibit trending or else isolate it to the morning, trending into the close becomes a very real possibility. As with yesterday, the difference should be defined by whether the open is above 1881.00-1885.00, or below it. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1881.00-1885.00 would be likely to trend down through the morning, next targeting 1856.00. Exiting the open above 1992.00 would be likely to trend back up.

Post-open choppiness has wound the mechanism. Gapping down more than 50 points doesn't stop on a dime. This morning's gap down quickly bounced sharply, from 1860.00 to 1881.00. But the 1881.00-1885.00 predictive range held through 9:45, and the balance of the morning has ranged choppily. The new predictive range is 1865.00-1868.00. It's getting quite the workout this  morning. Every leg has overlapped it or reacted sharply to piercing or attacking it. Now the bias environment is lapsing, and trending can resume. Entering the noon hour under 1865.00 would be likely to trend in that direction. Next lower target area is 1853.00-1855.50. Any lower is probably a lot lower. Back above 1875.00 instead could produce fresh session highs. But that upside should be limited to 1881.00-1885.00, and nothing short of 1992.00 would reduce the vulnerability to trending back down into the close. UPDATE: There is now a chance that I will be away during the last hour for 30-45 minutes IN ADDITION to the previous windows. I list specifics in the next post.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1886.50 1878.75 ...would target 1892.75 1885.00 Bias-down: under 1870.25 1862.50 ...would target 1872.25 1855.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Late bias-down and bearish WedEX are fighting against timid buyers. I call them timid buyers because they keep trying, and then stop short of anything impressive. Maybe there's a reason for that. There's timid sellers, too. Entering the noon hour above the morning's low before probing lower, and then recovering the morning's low before the noon hour's end, is a bullish setup. It was borderline today. But sellers can be timid and still win the day. Bias-down just triggered late, and some remnant of the bearish WedEX may still be influential. Be careful being short without breaking down under 1853.00-1855.50. Above 1868.00 could start to be squeezed higher. REMINDER : I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREEN FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR STARTING NOW.