Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's pre-open dip to 3279.00 was reversed through the morning to a new high at 3299.00. It was the 7th consecutive session to probe above its prior session's high. Wednesday also threatened to be the 2nd consecutive Pivot Reversal session. But reversing the new trend high back down to 3281.50 not only held the open's 3281.75 low -- more so, the 3291.00 close recovered 3283.25 and 3288.00 to recover positive territory. The last half hour's recovery extended almost 13 points to 3294.25. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The late reaction from 3281.50 extended through the Globex open to touch 3300.00. A shallow dip to 3294.50 was recovered through midnight where the market waited out Europe's opens. The new high until then lacked complexity, but a couple of surges up to 3308.00 have now created a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring eventual intraday retest. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Two consecutive sessions Tuesday and Wednesday probed new trend highs that were reversed intraday into negative territory, while each reaction up then avoided reversing momentum down. Sellers failing to gain traction for their efforts wasn't necessarily going to resume the rally today, not without gapping up. Gapping up is now indicated. Tuesday and Wednesday's warnings that the air is thin up here should still be considered -- a delayed recovery from dipping back under prior highs could find an air pocket down to oversold RSIs at Wednesday afternoon's 3281.50 low. Gapping up above all prior highs would/will at least create new "unfinished business" above. The bearish template is that Wednesday's late surge and overnight extension higher are only a relief rally following the China trade deal's signing and the House's impeachment referral. The market is now free to focus on earnings releases, for better or worse. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3304.75 would be likely also to exceed the 3303.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 3311.00. Exiting the open above 3298.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3296.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3295.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Alternatively, gap up is maintained. The 3305.25 gap up was extended higher through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to 3308.50. That neutralized the overnight high's 3308.00 "new Globex trend extreme." Simultaneously, the open's trending established an anchor to help ensure recovering from a reaction down. The 3305.25 opening print above all prior highs will require an eventual retest from below, so it also ensures recovering from a reaction down. Those are now unfinished business above, but they don't prevent a reaction down.

Reacting down this morning is unlikely for having renewed the bias-up signal, exceeding its 3303.00 bias-up target through 10:15. The renewed bias-up target is 3311.00, but its test is not required and won't become unfinished business if left outstanding. The post-10:30 3308.75 high exceeded the pre-10:15 high, albeit by only an errant tick, but it does help to ensure the renewed bias-up's influence.

Reacting down this morning is already unlikely for having maintained a gap up. But a pullback would have room down to the 3296.75 bias-up signal without requiring a recovery other than the open's gap. After the bias environment begins lapsing, a deeper drop would be free to extend.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3308.00 3308.00 ...would target 3314.00 3314.00 Bias-down: under 3301.75 3302.00 ...would target 3296.25 3296.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Finally probing a fresh high. Gapping up without yesterday's sponsorship first gaining traction was rewarded with control of the morning's bias environment. The reversal opportunity upon exiting the bias environment wasn't exploited by sellers. So, another reward becomes payable to this morning's sponsorship, at least to probe fresh highs. Now this morning's 3308.50 highs are being probed by at least 1 point. Fresh highs would be likely to visit 3311.00. Even if that were 100{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} assured, a steep slope is not, and neither is its reaction -- whether extending higher or reversing down. Meanwhile, regardless of extending any higher, back under 3305.25 would signal momentum reversing down. "Lower prior highs" in the Tue-Wed range would still be vulnerable to collapsing to the range's lower-end.

If Tuesday and Wednesday's patterns (mostly Tuesday) warned of the air getting thin up here, then Thursday seems to have sounded the all-clear. Gapping up above 3295.00-3298.00 prior highs to test Wednesday night's 3308.00 high only ranged sideways through the morning. And only ranged more narrowly sideways through the noon hour, with only a slightly higher high during the bias environment. But that slightly higher high was during a no-bias environment. And it formed a close-quarters double top. The rally was either champing at the bit, or stretching the rubber band to snap back down. The final hour's surge to 3318.00 made the choice clear, while its timing also revealed strong-handed sponsorship behind the squeeze. The string of consecutive higher highs is approaching another Up/Down-crash setup, and an actual blow-off leg is underway. But trend extremes aren't associated with expirations or 3-day holiday weekends. Thursday's new trend high close keeps the burden of proof on sellers, and a new trend high close on Friday would further entrench the rally. Retracing to Tue-Wed 3295.00-3298.00 "lower prior highs" would still need to retest Thursday's 3305.25 opening gap from below. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3319.25 3319.50 ...would target 3327.00 3327.25 Bias-down: under 3309.25 3309.50 ...would target 3303.50 3303.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.