Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's impressive surge might have quickly peaked after extending into Tuesday morning. But a 13-point pre-open slide reinserted pessimism and refueled buyers. And probing fresh highs overnight created a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. Threatening to open under the earlier overnight low could have been bearish, but absorbing it put into play a near-term retest of the overnight high. Which is what the morning did, probing it by 2-1/2 points. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, above Monday's highs. "Unfinished business above" was left outstanding at the morning high's the overbought RSIs. Overnight action's new info... Yesterday afternoon's choppy sideways ranging shrank in size as it hovered at or above the afternoon's 2837.00 lows. Surging well before Europe's opens attacked the 2843.50 upper-end of yesterday afternoon's range, then extended to new highs attacking 2847.00. Overbought RSIs at the intraday high were neutralized, and no complexity formed the requirement for a retest. Nevertheless, a reaction down to 2843.00 is now attacking 2848.00. If, then... If no interim downdraft appears before the open, then the overnight action could be the temporary relief rally that was yesterday's original template. Three other helpful elements to topping are: avoid gapping up above yesterday's 2844.50 high, probe the overnight high by 6-8 ticks, all by mid-afternoon. But that's just enough to optimize the vulnerability to reversing down without leaving unfinished business above. Forming these topping elements without tracking the reversal template could resolve as bullishly as the resolution could have been bearish. Producing only a post-open pullback could still extend down, but probably not durably. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2840.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2843.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... .

Pre-open rally's pullback finds impatient buyers. Not much digging was required after the open before attracting new sponsorship to resume the rally. Resume it, and extend it, at a steep slope. The overnight rally had extended to within 1 tick of its 2854.00potential, forming a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires intraday retest. Its reaction down greeted the open this morning's 2848.00 bias-up target. Retesting the overnight high was likely, but likelier from a little deeper, which I identified on the chart at 2845.50. Its touch did react up, first to the open's peak, and then surging 8 points to pierce 2854.00. Piercing 2854.00 again finally left 1-minute RSI behind. Its reaction down to 2850.50 must either recover to resume the rally, or else reverse down. Being is a bias-up environment this morning -- albeit having held the renewed bias-up target -- pullbacks should be defined by either 2848.00 or 2843.00. Lower would be possible after the bias environment begins lapsing, and waiting until after noon would be bearish. On a side note, here's a chart that Zerohedge posted this morning. It's of the Shanghai China SSE Composite SHCOMP. And it might become a chart of my "Up/Down-Crash setup.. So far, it is at only 9 consecutive up sessions with 1 counter-trend exception. My definition for the setup is "A rubber band is being stretched to its maximum integrity. At 10-12 sessions in the sequence, the pattern's resolution becomes increasingly binary, and increasingly polarized. Either the rubber band snaps back, or its restraint (i.e. dam) breaks." SHCOMP fluctuations usually have only a brief effect on other indexes. But popping a China bubble could be indefensible. I'm not sure that iot extending higher would be any more bullish generally.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2843.00 2844.00 ...would target  2849.00  2850.00 Bias-down: under  2834.50  2835.50 ...would target  2828.50  2829.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Extending higher only stretched the rubber band. The open's gap up to 2848.00 is above all prior intraday highs. Its brief dip to 2845.50 support recovered as was expected, retesting the 2850.25 overnight high. The retest extended ultimately to 2855.25.

Ultimately, but gradually. This was not a good spot for enthusiasm to wane.

In this morning's Market Tour I described the overnight rally as potentially being the failed follow-through to Monday's capitulation. Tuesday's pre-open dip had injected a bit of pessimism to keep alive the upside momentum. This morning's pattern went the other way, injecting quite a bit of optimism. Back under 2851.00 resumed the decline. This morning's 2843.00 bias-up signal was broken when the bias environment came within view of lapsing. And now this afternoon's 2829.50 bias-down target is exceeded to renew the bias-down signal.

Extending down further isn't required, but this afternoon's 2835.50 bias-down signal could contain a bounce. In fact, it's trying to do that right now, after bouncing to 2838.00. Probing above 2835.50 during the bias-down environment would be a bias-down rally. Like no-bias trending, it would be doomed to failure, and require being retraced to the 2835.50 bias-down signal and possibly the 2827.00 10:15 print.

Meanwhile, a bounce back to the 2848.00 may be underway. Its test is likely at least to attack 2850.00. Regardless, today's close either above or below yesterday afternoon's 2837.00-2843.50 range would be predictive of the next major leg.

Wednesday's 30-point drop from high-to-low only rivaled last Tuesday's 39-point high-to-low intraday drop. Their afternoon bounces differed in all but one relevant element. Last Tuesday afternoon's bounce was resisted by "higher prior lows" of the previous afternoon. But Wednesday's bounce was probing back above the similar structure from Tuesday. That difference allowed a gap up last Wednesday to target a retest of the prior day's open and its high. But this time a gap up Thursday would have to be above Wednesday's open before putting into play a retest of Wednesday's high. Regardless, both open's gapped up above all prior highs, so both require being filled intraday.

None of which requires filling the gap back up to Wednesday's 2848.00 open immediately. It's likely to be tested sooner rather than later, if only because Wednesday afternoon's 2839-2845 range was within its orbit. Its test can be influential overnight, but its attraction can be neutralized only intraday.

Meanwhile, Wednesday afternoon's rally originated from under its 2835.50 bias-down signal, during its bias-down environment. Similar to "no-bias trending," the bias-down signal must be retraced. And the delay in retracing it makes its 1:20 bias timing print likely to be retraced, too... at 2827.00. Either of these retracements can be neutralized overnight.

One thing becoming more likelier, if not more obvious, is that the market has entered a distributive phase. Rising prices intraday do not dictate resolution, and the intraday behaviors are revealing cracks.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2842.00 2843.00 ...would target  2848.25  2849.25 Bias-down: under  2834.50  2835.50 ...would target  2827.50  2828.50 Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.