Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's bullish PM Traction setup wouldn't be affected by the 33-point overnight slide to 3813.00, or by Friday's gap down. Its influence on the morning's bias window only needed the open not to trend down. And it firmed, which also signaled the relentless overnight trending setup would be bullish, too. Neither bullish setup could prevent a post-open 15-point dip to 3822.00. But they anticipated the dip would both hold and reverse up to fresh session highs. Testing 3842.50 at noon marked the session high -- except for a brief late probe up to 3845.00 that reacted down hard to 3830.50 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open gapped up and extended higher as the Kansas City Chiefs dominated the Buffalo Bills. Coincidence? Perhaps. The 3851.25 bias-up signal was already being tested before midnight. A blip-up to 3853.25 at Europe's opens only snapped back down to test the 3842.00 bias-up signal as support, which is still being tested down to 3838.50 by a knee-jerk reaction to headlines that MRK is ending its Dovid vaccine research on lackluster results. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday's entire session evolved in negative territory, so sellers could never be marginalized. Following this setup with a morning rally should begin by gapping up, which is still indicated. Meanwhile, having probed Friday's highs overnight, opening back under the 3837.00 earlier Globex low would form a bearish Globex-flip that trends down for the morning. The unfinished business is 3860.00-3861.00 and the rally's 3884.00. Even with probing higher first, the burden of proof is on buyers to hold up, let alone trend up, and not to snap back down more substantially. The earnings onslaught continues. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Bias-up target met. Then comes the collapse Follow-through from the MRK headline continued breaking back under the 3842.00 bias-up signal, ultimately back to Friday's last-minute low at 3830.00. Bouncing through the open prevented a forming a bearish Globex-flip setup. Triggering bias-up quickly satisfied its 3851.25 bias-up target. Then a consolidation was met with the headline from Senate leader Schumer that stimulus would be delayed "a month, month and-a-half." Whether it was the news, itself, or Schumer's lackadaisical dismissal, its knee-jerk reaction plunged to 3788.50. This tests the lowest corrective pullback limit at 3795.00-3800.00. Exiting the bias window above it would isolate the test. Exiting the bias window back above its 3828.75 bias-down signal would also avoid invalidating the bias-up window's origin. Multiple upside attractions begin at the headline reaction's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} 3826.00 minimum retrace, to its equally likely 3842.00 correction. But oversold RSIs at the low may prevent a near-term recovery. Entering the noon hour under 3800.00 -- especially now that a productive bounce is testing 3818.00 -- would suggest a much deeper decline underway.

MON P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3834.50 signal would target 3844.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3817.75 signal would target 3810.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3851.50 3844.00 ...would target 3842.00 3834.50 Bias-down: under 3825.25 3817.75 ...would target 3818.00 3810.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Morning plunge largely retraced. This morning's 3842.00 bias-up signal was broken during a bias-up window, requiring its retest. Unless, exiting the bias window at noon under its bias-down target would negate the required retrace. Exiting the bias window under the bias-down signal would suffice, already having fulfilled the bias-up target. The noon hour was entered at the morning's 3828.75 bias-down signal. Overlapping is not equivalent to rejecting. So, 3842.00 required being retraced. Triggering this afternoon's bias-up has already neutralized the required retrace. And its 3844.00 bias-up target is already met to within 3-6 ticks. This is still a bias-up environment, capable of resuming the rally underway this morning when Schumer's headline interfered. But there is meanwhile room back down to 3830.75 before starting to signal another downleg underway.

"That which doesn't kill us..." Monday emerged from two assassination attempts. Sunday night's initial optimism quickly reached and held resistance testing the morning's bias-up target up to 3853.00. A negative vaccine headline from MRK triggered a pre-open dip to 3830.00 that was largely recovered pre-open. Then a negative stimulus headline from Schumer triggered a post-open plunge to 3788.50 which was largely recovered through the noon hour. The last half-hour broke higher to attack the post-open high. The recovery didn't gain traction that requires extending higher immediately. Lacking this one feature prevented forming a compelling hold-long. But having isolated intraday tests of 3795.00-3800.00 and 3815.00, -- and absent gapping down Tuesday -- unfinished business at 3860.00-3861.00 is still likely to be tested next. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3853.50 signal would target 3860.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3837.00 signal would target 3828.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3761.00 3853.50 ...would target 3867.75 3860.25 Bias-down: under 3744.50 3837.00 ...would target 3835.50 3828.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE