Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night's initial optimism quickly reached and held resistance testing the morning's bias-up target up to 3853.00. A negative vaccine headline from MRK triggered a pre-open dip to 3830.00 that was largely recovered pre-open. Then a negative stimulus headline from Schumer triggered a post-open plunge to 3788.50 which was largely recovered through the noon hour. The last half-hour broke higher until attacking the morning's high. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's close was almost a compelling hold-long. Likely to extend higher this morning, but not necessarily by gapping up. Case in point: Trending down relentlessly since the Globex open, its slide extended to 3821.50 by midnight on headlines of China's monetary moves. Its consolidation was reversed at Europe's opens. Now yesterday's highs are being probed to within 3 points of last week's 3859.75 high. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Does this sound familiar? "Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic" - Paul Tudor Jones. Sounds like yesterday's short-squeezes, a.k.a. GameStop wannabes. Other behaviors have been informing our recent discussions of the rally soon running out of road. Regardless of the bigger picture, understand that I'll be calling intraday turning points, including up, regardless of how close to the edge it seems the market is dancing. Bullish intraday signals can form until the sudden end, although I'm also monitoring for excessive optimism that would be better sold, and for "heavy" price action that is having difficulty extending higher. In the meanwhile, be sure not to get caught long if things start souring. Yesterday's isolation of testing key supports suggests that the market still wants to probe higher, at least to unfinished business at 3860.00-3861.00 is still likely to be tested next. Yesterday's isolation recovery also suggested that last night's dip would recover, which it has. Neither recovery has exceeded its origin, not yet through a relevant window. So, while a pattern of recovering dips is forming, watch out for those recoveries forming a pattern of more so recovering than reversing. That price action would start to get heavy. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

After creating new unfinished business above. The overnight recovery gapped up 7 points above yesterday's 3851.50 highs and surged up to unfinished business up to 3862.25. Then price reversed down. Two downlegs ultimately reached 3842.25 after 10:15, helping to confirm the rejection of both bias-up parameters. Offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is in-play. But not without a fight. After several whipsaws, a bounce to 3854.50 is testing the bias-up signal as resistance. It's too late to trigger or to invalidate no-bias. Probing above 3853.50 would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced, perhaps also back down to the 10:15 3847.00 print. The upside attraction is newly created unfinished business at the 3858.25 open's gap beyond all prior highs. Currently, the 3854.50 gap-to-gap proxy is resisting. The lower no-bias objectives aren't helping the bounce either.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3851.25 signal would target 3860.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3835.50 signal would target 3827.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3859.25 3851.25 ...would target 3868.25 3860.25 Bias-down: under 3843.25 3835.50 ...would target 3835.25 3827.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Failed trending leaving new attractions. These influences aren't competing for market direction. They're competing with the market for attention. Another post-close earnings onslaught, anxiousness as the FOMC meeting gets underway, short-squeezes sucking the oxygen out of the broader market, Verizon internet cable cut in Brooklyn affecting the upper-East coast. These influences are competing for market direction. The open's probe of the morning's bias-up parameters held their test to trigger no-bias, putting into play offsetting tests of their 3837.00 and 3828.00 bias-down parameters. The 3840.00 low since then makes them unfinished business. The open's 3858.25 gap beyond all prior highs wants to be filled now that a prior session's range has been probed. It is meanwhile unfinished business. This afternoon's no-bias window is testing its 3851.25 bias-up signal. Currently just overlapping it by 1 point, but probing any higher would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced, often also to the 3848.50 1:20 print. The bounce could extend temporarily during the no-bias window to gap-fill the open and require being retraced. Back under 3846.50 first would start to signal this morning's lower objectives are in-play.

Monday's steep intraday dip and recovery was followed by a scaled down version overnight. The latter gapped up Tuesday to probe fresh highs at 3862.00, just enough to neutralize unfinished business and test both bias-up parameters before reversing back down to 3840.00 by noon. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. The morning's bias objective left outstanding its offsetting tests of the 3837.00 and 3828.00 bias-down parameters. The open's 3858.25 gap beyond all prior highs wants to be filled. For a sideways ranging session, creating two unfinished business items reflects a lot of argument beneath the surface. Once again, recoveries stopped short of any relevant resistance that would suggest strong hands are accumulating. Whether anxiousness ahead of post-close earnings, the northeast internet cable cut, short-squeeze distractions, or Wednesday's FOMC events, fresh highs targeting 3884.00 wouldn't be surprising. Less surprising than if it held up. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3852.25 signal would target 3862.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3836.00 signal would target 3825.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3860.25 3852.25 ...would target 3870.00 3862.00 Bias-down: under 3843.75 3836.00 ...would target 3833.00 3825.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE