Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday''s recovery didn''t gain traction for its effort, despite trending higher through the afternoon, and despite a late 10-point surge. The uptrend''s interim reactions down to higher lows had each prevented greeting key timing windows at a higher high. The late surge originated too late to be relevant, and probed a fresh high only after the cash session close. Additionally, its pre-close and post-close highs each coincided with resistance -- 2050.50 the afternoon''s bias-up target, and 2055.00 had defined Friday''s intraday resistance. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Monday''s 2034.50 opening low.

Overnight action''s new info...
Having expended unavailable energy through Monday''s close, an overnight pullback became likely. Sideways ranging between 2052.00-2054.00 had already broken lower 3-5 points into Europe''s opens. A blip-up into the range was reversed as quickly, and much more substantially, just now touching 2040.00.

If, then...
Yesterday''s close surged to fresh highs despite the afternoon failing to gain traction. This was the basis for my warning Market Wrap warning about a likely overnight pullback. My likely objective was 2044.00, with potential to 2041.00. The lower objective as met only momentarily by a knee-jerk reaction to PG missing earnings, and perhaps also from MSFT gapping down under yesterday''s after hours dip. The overnight drop has probably extended too deep and too late for a recovery to gap up, so rallying this morning will depend on opening too low to attract new sellers. A lot of econ reports are on their way, which are likely to be a catalyst for more volatility. The overnight drop remains vulnerable to extending so long as 2044.00 isn''t recovered.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2041.00 would be likely also trigger the 2044.00 bias-down signal  at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2046.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias.down.

This is going to leave a mark.

The overnight drop blew through its 2044.00 likely objective to test the room for noise under it down to 2041.00. That extra blip (actually, to 2040.00) as in reaction to earnings misses. Its reaction up consolidated, but GDP didn''t help.

Eventually, Sunday night''s 2025.25 low was being retested, too. That''s a long way off from yesterday''s 2055.00 post-close high. 

2055.00 was already a long way off from Sunday night''s 2025.25 low. But the return developed faster. And now also deeper, with 2013.25 tested, and potential to 2008.00.

The open''s 2021.50-2029.75 range didn''t break lower until AT 10:30. Its break is still credible, but its potential to 2008.00 or to any fresh low would be invalidated by recovering enough of the open''s range as the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30.

In fact, the bounce from 2013.25 is attacking the opening range''s 2121.50 lower-end. Delaying its rejection could gain traction above 2024.50 and 2026.25 to reverse momentum higher through the afternoon.

Otherwise, back under 2016.50 would resume the decline, with next support at 2011.00, and targeting at least 2008.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2033.75
2027.00
...would target 2038.75
2032.25
Bias-down: under 2022.75
2016.25
...would target 2017.75
2011.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Tuesday was half the battle to proving Sunday night''s retest of Friday''s low had held. Actually closing higher, and then confirming with a second consecutive higher close Wednesday, could form a significant low.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday''s rally helped to confirm the recent weakness was only temporary, at least until retesting the highs to form a more durable top. A fresh high targeting at least 1310.00 remains likely, now so long as 1287.00 holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday night''s lows were largely recovered before Tuesday''s open, and firmed further through the morning. Fresh highs remain likely so long as 17.88 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Pre-open strength extended to attack Sunday night''s 150-29 high, but settled back into the recent narrow ranging around Friday''s high. There is room for more probes above, albeit only temporary, while awaiting another downleg -- which would now be triggered under 149-12.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Ugly economic data didn''t encourage any buying pressure, but neither did it trigger a much selling pressure. While this doesn''t equate to being a buy signal, not exploiting the excuse to decline under 46.25 does suggest that sellers are weak-handed.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again Tuesday wasn''t any likelier than prior attempts in this range to launch a recovery. That restrained optimism does allow a break above the 2.98 buy signal to be credible for extending higher intraday Wednesday, even if only to greet Thursday''s EIA report from a position of strength that helps to absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.

If not for the added pressure of poor earning surprises... then Monday night''s decline might have begun recovering before the open, and extended higher intraday from there. That extra push lower has now been retraced after hours by the reaction to AAPL''s earnings. Perhaps the downside was a tad overdone.

Pattern points... (Setups and technicals)
Because Tuesday afternoon did not probe under the morning''s low before reversing back into the earlier range, the session''s pessimism can''t be labeled as "ineffectual." Because the afternoon did probe ABOVE the open''s high before reversing back into the earlier range, the session''s pessimism was effective.

Tuesday''s entire session was spent in negative territory. Extending down any deeper through Wednesday''s close -- not just through its open -- would make a retest of two-week old lows the next likely objective.

But Tuesday''s pessimism can still be invalidated.

The last hour''s break under its 2032.25 sell signal fulfilled its potential down to 2023.00. That held through the close. It was recovered to 2031.00 through the cash session close (and then extended to fresh highs at 2039.00 in reaction to AAPL''s earnings). 

Extending overnight to gap up Wednesday above at least 2041.00 would establish a pretty solid base, having retested Sunday night''s low, and absorbing Tuesday''s gap down. Exiting the open above 2044.00 would be optimal. By the same token, Tuesday''s action chipped away at support, and not rallying from it quickly would be vulnerable to probing lower.

What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)
Wednesday afternoon''s FOMC policy statement might inhibit trending after late-morning, or encourage a retracement of trending already underway.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2037.25
2030.50
...would target 2043.75
2037.25
Bias-down: under 2029.25
2022.75
...would target 2023.75
2017.00
Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERSFAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.