Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Holding Thursday's intraday test of 3308.00-3311.00 support had all but required rewarding its buyers with a return to Wednesday's 3337.50 high. It was attacked to within 2 ticks overnight. Potential for Friday Factors influence to produce a morning short-squeeze were at least delayed by a post-open dip to the recovery's 3316.00 pullback limit. Its reaction was abbreviated by a coronavirus headline that leveraged Friday Factors to trigger a collapse. The afternoon bias environment's 3280.50 low reacted up to 3300.00, attacking Thursday's pre-open low while ranging choppily into the 3294.00 close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Weekend developments included he exponentially spreading coronavirus and an attack on the US embassy in Iraq. Sunday night's open gapped down 25 points to 3270.00 and extended immediately to 42 points at 3252.25. A narrowing sideways range around 3261.00 into Europe's opens blipped-up and then collapsed down to 3235.75, extending the drop to 58 points. A 30-minute 12-13 point bounce is now attacking 3249.00 as resistance. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The last Market Wrap noted that 3249.00 is the next lower objective if today's open hasn't held 3285.00. Today's open is currently indicated well under 3285.00. We've been discussing the weak base that launched the last upleg and the thinning air that was quickly retracing rallies. That 7-day old weak base's 3277.00 low was attacked Friday, and now its overnight break is suggesting that two subsequent distributive patterns are being triggered. One is a Double Top combining intraday and overnight highs last Wednesday and Friday that each tested 3337.00, and holding its 161.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} projection at 3242.75 post-open could start to form a bottom. Actually touching 3242.75 post-open isn't necessary to that bullish setup, but already opening back above 3255.00 would make it the low to hold. Regardless, bouncing up to 3283.00-3285.00 could still be no more than a temporary corrective bounce. Failing any and all bottoming efforts -- just breaking under 3238.00 -- would next target 3229.00 and then a very big line in the sand at 3214.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) This morning's parameters are well above the overnight range.

Post-open's fresh low was short-lived. The 3236.00 overnight low's reaction was attacking 3253.00 during the market tour. After such extensive overnight trending, that much counter-trend effort so long before the open was at risk of being premature. In fact, the open was greeted back at earlier lows. A blip-down to 3233.00 reversed up immediately, retracing 3253.00. Now its reaction down to 3242.00 is trying to recover. Back above 3253.50 would next target 3267.25. With or without bouncing any higher, nothing yet precludes another downdraft -- whether to attack the lows or to trend lower. Back under 3245.00 and 3241.50 would start to signal that downdraft underway.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3257.00 3256.00 ...would target 3265.00 3264.00 Bias-down: under 3243.00 3242.00 ...would target 3236.00 3235.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Discounted, for now? The open's reversal from 3233.00 up to 3253.50 spent the morning bias environment backing-and-filling down to 3239.50. That backing-and-filling had multiple opportunities to launch a new downleg, and didn't. Rallying into and through the noon hour probed fresh post-open highs up to 3257.50. But the afternoon 3256.00 bias-up signal's test was not resolved. Still testing it at both 1:20 and 1:30 triggered "noN-bias." Not bias-up that would require meeting its target. Not no-bias that would inhibit trending up. noN-bias can extend higher, react down, or neither. The morning backing-and-filling, and exiting the noon hour above the morning range, put a big burden of proof on sellers -- strong-handed sellers probably would have exploited the overnight momentum, and would have absorbed the higher high. Extending higher isn't required, but it would have potential up to 3267.25. If this wave of coronavirus news has been discounted, then perhaps the market can focus on the annual earnings onslaught. That focus helped to retest the high before Friday's open. Otherwise, another break lower under 3246.50 would start to signal more discounting and defensive posturing.

Monday's open was greeted back at the 3235.50 overnight low. The first minute's blip-down to 3233.00 snapped back up and extended to 3253.50. The morning bias environment's attempts to reverse down failed at 3239.50. The consequence was to recover even higher to 3257.50 coming out of the noon hour. But bias-up didn't trigger and the balance of the session trended back down through the morning's low to within 3 ticks of the opening print at 3237.50. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts when it mattered. The 3248.50 afternoon bias environment low was still being tested at the final hour's entry. That mean 11 points of selling pressure developed when no traction would be gained for its effort. A rally Tuesday morning must reject that late drop. Similarly, extending lower Tuesday morning will be vulnerable to recovering. Extending lower would next target 3227.00-3228.00, and then potentially 3214.00. Gapping up above 3250.50 would be credible for launching another corrective bounce like Monday morning, with potential up to 3267.25. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3246.00 3245.00 ...would target 3253.25 3252.25 Bias-down: under 3238.75 3237.75 ...would target 3231.50 3230.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.