Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory! An overnight rally had postured Thursday's open to challenge Wednesday's 2762.00 high only 90 minutes earlier. Then headlines triggered a plunge through Wednesday's 2754.00 close on the way down to 2736.50. Extending down post-open to 2730.25 created an anchor that would doom to failure any subsequent bounce. That didn't prevent rallying up to 2755.25 through the noon hour, but it did limit any higher high to a blip-up to 2758.25. Finally, the bounce began retracing as the last half-hour fell to 2743.00-2744.00. Overnight action's new info... The bounce continued unraveling through the Globex open to retrace Thursday's 2739.50 open. The fall extended to probe 5 ticks under Thursday's low to 2729.00 just before Europe's opens. And that was the end of that. Rallying since then has recovered into positive territory to test the 2744.50 earlier Globex high up to 2749.25. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The anchor at yesterday's low had doomed the subsequent rally. This setup is now neutralized by having probed a fresh low, and its intraday retest isn't required. Often a new downleg under it would have developed to compensate for the delay, and may yet develop. Meanwhile, a couple of rally setups are trying to form overnight. Probing yesterday's low overnight and not retesting it this morning could form an Isolation setup by not probing yesterday's low through the open. More influential than that would be a Globex-flip setup, which also rejects the overnight probe by opening back above the 2744.50 earlier Globex high (now being tested). The latter setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish if the opportunity to trigger is presented AT the open, but isn't exploited THROUGH the open. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2744.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2741.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2746.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2753.00 bias-up signal.

Overnight rally extends through the open. Market Tour was recorded while the 2744.50 earlier Globex high was serving as support, after having recovered from probing yesterday's 2730.25 overnight low. A bullish Globex-flip setup needed only to maintain that much of a recovery. But China trade headlines triggered the rally's resumption. By the time of my pre-open comments, the nearest buy signal was 2757.75. It was triggered just minutes later by a surge up to 2769.00. The open held up, and has already been rewarded by a fresh high at 2773.00 as more China trade headlines hit.

This being a Friday, the morning's bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour. That doesn't require extending higher, or that extending higher be steep. Being a bias-up, a reaction down could test the 2753.00 bias-up signal as support. But the Globex-flip setup suggests the rally will persist through the morning.

None of which affects the bearish WedEX influence due this afternoon. The setup can't be inverted again, and can only be invalidated by not trending down during the afternoon bias environment and final hour. Meanwhile, trend extremes aren't normally associated with expirations, and a new trend extreme close on a Friday all but requires another trend extreme close before a reversal down is credible.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2771.25 2771.00 ...would target 2778.50 2778.25 Bias-down: under 2760.00 2760.00 ...would target 2753.50 2753.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Afternoon shifting between influences. This afternoon's bias environment shuts the door on two of this morning's bullish influences, and opens the door to another.

The bullish Globex-flip setup triggered easily. Its influence applies either to this morning, or else through the following morning. The difference is identified during the interim afternoon. If this afternoon extends the rally, then it's likely also to extend the following morning. But not extending the rally this afternoon would leave the following morning without the Globex-flip influence.

This morning's other bullish influence is a usual Friday Factor. The morning's bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour on Fridays. This morning's bias-up was renewed. That didn't translate into extending the trend, but a reversal was avoided. That inhibition is now done.

The opposite of bullish is not "bearish." It is "not bullish." Bearish requires its own signal. Enter the bearish WedEX. Thursday's gap down held under two prior relative lows to invert Wednesday's bullish WedEX by proxy. The setup became bearish. Its influence spans Friday afternoon through Monday morning. Had the overnight rally extended higher this morning, I wouldn't be surprised at the setup failing. It may yet, but all of that overnight buying pressure failing to extend post-open leaves the door below wide open -- even without the bearish WedEX. Meanwhile, notice the difference between NQ and ES in the nearby charts. Even the overnight rally is not broad. This afternoon's bias-up didn't trigger, despite being attacked to within 3 ticks during the noon hour. If trading a buy signal this afternoon, consider using smaller unit sizes and/or shallower targets. REMINDER: This being a holiday weekend, there is no Saturday Review. Be sure to make stock chart requests by this afternoon.

Friday's bullish Globex-flip setup was influential, but only to preventing a reversal down. Post-open action ranged relatively narrowly sideways. A very last-minute surge did probe fresh highs, but that was too late to ensure the Globex-flip setup would extend through the following morning. Meanwhile, the very last-minute surge invalidated the bearish WedEX. I would still give sellers a benefit of the doubt if Monday's open were to gap down deeply enough. How deep is deep enough? Back under Wednesday's 2762.00 prior highs would form an Island out of Friday's range. Gapping down under at least 2757.00-- if not also under 2751.00 -- could reject Friday's close above them and prevent a second consecutive confirming close, keeping alive the current bear market rally. Friday's underperformance by NDX and outperformance by the Dow makes me very suspicious that a bigger rally leg is only now getting underway. Otherwise, a fresh trend extreme close on expirations doesn't often reverse the trend. And a fresh trend extreme close on Fridays requires an eventual higher close, regardless of any interim dip. Regardless, the three-day holiday weekend is not global, so there's no assurance of greeting Tuesday's open with only little change. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. There is NO Saturday Review this weekend. Chartroom re-opens at 6 ET Sunday.

  TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2777.25 2777.25 ...would target 2784.00 2784.00 Bias-down: under 2767.75 2767.75 ...would target 2759.00 2759.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.