Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Globex extended Wed's recovery to the 4168 bias-up signal. Drifting back down at Europe's opens greeted Thu's pre-open econ reports at 4140, and collapsed to the 4104 open. Consolidating around it included a blip-down to 4098 before reversing up to 4133, and higher during the noon hour up to 4145. Dipping through the bias window exit was exacerbated by the day's second Fed headline that triggered another drop to 4095.
Overnight price points : Globex's open immediately extended another 10 points down to 4085. Breaking lower into midnight extended more aggressively through Europe's opens down to 4063. Its reaction has been ranging 4066-4081.
Catalysts : LEI post-open, Earnings ongoing, Fed speakers.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Friday Factors, 3-day weekend, Expiration.
Their influences : Seasonal events are exacerbating volatility, which Fed headlines leveraged. But their influences tend to be temporary, and not producing new legs or durable reversals.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : All observable indicators should never fully align with each other, so in that sense it's always a mixed market. However, predictability is not a simple tally of how many indicators align in one direction vs. the opposite. And the potentially bullish indicators -- yet to be triggered, or to confirm Thu's drop comes from a position of strength -- those indicators are offering a bullish context. I've been describing them throughout, but we'll have a dedicated post later this morning. Meanwhile, there's this morning's lengthy Planner video describing possible paths higher this morning, if only because the path lower is simple: Under interim support at 4084 would next target 4051.
Alternative : Under 4051 sets up not only a deeper decline, but also more protracted to reward its sponsorship for the template they'll have broken.
Levels : UP: 4128, 4144, 4174... DOWN: 4084, 4051, 4004.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Globex's open immediately extended another 10 points down to 4085. Breaking lower into midnight extended more aggressively through Europe's opens down to 4063.
New price points : Ranging sideways into the open reacted back down sharply from the 4084 bias-down target's resistance. Its drop to 4057 reacted more substantially to the 4085 38.2% proxy gap. Its retest to 4087 is reacting back down to 4066.
Catalysts : LEI, Earnings ongoing, Fed speakers.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN RENEWED... Friday Factors, 3-day weekend, Expiration... Proxy Gap.
Their influences : Seasonal events are exacerbating volatility, which Fed headlines leveraged. But their influences tend to be temporary, and not producing new legs or durable reversals... The 4085-4091 Proxy gap was tested twice while RSIs were not simultaneously overbought, each setup undermining that attempt to extend higher.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : This setup is suggesting the close will be flat with the open: The first 15-minute range was probed both below and above, barely returning back into the range at 10:00 and 10:30. Maintaining either break, or returning more than 61.8% back into the open's range, would have likely extended in that direction. Refusing both opportunities does not prevent more volatility -- to the contrary, the two divergent trending attempts all but ensure more post-open extremes coming. Back under 4060 would next target the 4051 area, and above 4085 would target 4107.
Alternative : Exiting a timing window under 4048 would break free from the open's orbit and extend down to 4004.
Levels : UP: 4128, 4144, 4174... DOWN: 4084, 4051, 4004.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

FRI P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4074, targeting 4088.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4058, targeting 4048.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.