Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday's 2765.00 open was 10 points above Thursday's high. But that was modest compared to being 35 points above the overnight low, having rallied relentlessly since Europe's opens. The balance of the session was a choppy 10-point range between 2763.00-2773.00, until the position-squaring window surged to 2777.50 through expiration. WedEX had no bearish influence, so it's not required to have a bearish influence Tuesday morning unless the open were to gap down deeply enough. Meanwhile, closing above 2757.00 and 2751.00 suggests the rally since Christmas is more than a temporary bear market correction. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open spiked up 5 points to 2782.50. It reacted down almost immediately to begin a directionless range between 2773.00-2780.00 that persisted through all of Monday's abbreviated session, and well past midnight. Then, as if an alarm clock sounded, the market seems to have awoken from its slumber. Trending was finally attempted soon after Europe's opens, so far dipping down to 2766.75 (testing this morning's bias-down signal) where RSIs have diverged positively. The break from an otherwise sideways range comes too early to ensure it's false and any likelier to recover. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Topping here need not immediately reverse the trend down noticeably, but it probably needs to stop rallying immediately. Friday's underperformance by NDX and outperformance by the Dow makes a bigger rally leg from here suspect. Otherwise, historically a fresh trend extreme close on expiration like Friday is usually exceeded, and a fresh trend extreme close on Fridays usually requires an eventual higher close. Both could be considered anomalies by gapping down deeply enough to reinstate WedEX's bearish influence. Not only triggering bias-down but also gapping under Wednesday's 2762.00 prior highs to form an Island out of Friday's range, if not also under 2757.00 and/or 2751.00 to reject Friday's close above them and help to prevent a second consecutive confirming close. Meanwhile, trying to reject Friday's bullish elements, but not, could be as bullish intraday as the rejection would have been bearish. Similarly, testing bias-down without triggering it would put into play a probe above Sunday night's highs. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.25 would be likely to trigger the 2767.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2772.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Overnight slide reverses straight up. A relatively narrow sideways range had developed from Friday's close through Monday and well past midnight. Its eventual break just after Europe's opens was far enough removed from this morning's open that we couldn't rely on it being a false break. Butt that didn't prevent its complete retracement anyway. Fluctuating around unchanged at 2776.00-2777.00 had broken lower to 2767.00 where RSIs diverged positively. A 4-point bounce reacted down to touch 2766.00 at the open. Another bounce developed immediately, holding the 2767.75 bias-down signal.

Holding the bias-down signal's test through 10:15 would put into play an offsetting test of the 2777.25 bias-up signal. But the post-open bounce was much stronger than its pre-open predecessor, and tested the bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period.

Now having held a test of the bias-up signal, a test of the 2767.75 bias-down signal is back in-play. It's not required to be tested since it was tested already post-open. But it's usually tested anyway.

Perhaps more relevant is the non-arbitrary amount of buying pressure expended post-open. It touched a relevant resistance during a relevant window. Expending so much energy so soon leaves none in reserve, which I would have expected to eventually test the overnight highs. Instead, now the question is whether a test of the overnight lows is underway.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2783.25 2783.00 ...would target 2789.00 2788.75 Bias-down: under 2773.00 2773.00 ...would target 2767.50 2767.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Rejecting fresh highs wouldn't be bullish. This moring's bias-down signal was tested and held through the open, but its offsetting test of the bias-up signal was held through the bias timing window's grace period. This setup usually produces an offsetting test of the bias-down signal, despite it having been tested first. But not this morning.

Perhaps that's because the setup I just described was triggered by the 1 tick. The 2777.25 bias-up signal was attacked to within only 1 tick at 10:30. Actually touching it would have triggered noN-bias, which is more how the morning developed -- shallow 5-6 point backing-and-filling that waited for the window to lapse.

And when the window began lapsing, the post-open recovery resumed. Surging 10 points from 2774.00 tested the morning's 2784.00 bias-up target that I had suspected would be met anyway, but for having expended so much buying pressure so quickly this morning. 2784.00 has since held another 5-point pullback. Resolving up again is possible, all but marginalizing sellers for the day and confirming the trend remains up. Otherwise, fresh afternoon lows under 2778.00 would start to signal another rally effort had failed. Closing negative -- if not also under this morning's lows -- would form a bearish Pivot Reversal unlikely to delay extending down.

Tuesday's open gapped down from Friday's 2776.00-2777.00 close, but only to test its 2766.50 last relative low. Immediately reacting up filled the gap back to Friday's close. The bias environment exit converted the morning's recovery into a new rally leg that fulfilled its 2784.00 objective at noon. Higher highs into the final hour at 2787.50 gained no traction, and the balance of the session dipped back down to unchanged through the futures close. The cash session close and 3 minutes prior were both testing 2779.00-2780.00. That's not deep enough soon enough to be confident that Tuesday failed to produce a second consecutive higher close. And that keeps alive Friday's close above 2751.00/2757.00 to invalidate the two-month old rally still being only a temporary correction. Just closing above 2751.00/2757.00 would have sufficed, had Tuesday not also probed fresh highs. That raised the burden of proof for a confirmation to close positive. Which wasn't the most credible. So, gapping down or exiting a timing window back under Tuesday morning's 2766.00 low would invalidate the confirmation. Otherwise, the rally's next objective would be new highs -- albeit not at all protected from beginning a corrective pullback. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2786.25 2786.00 ...would target 2793.75 2793.50 Bias-down: under 2768.50 2768.50 ...would target 2762.25 2762.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.