Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Snapping up to 4000 into Wed's close extended to the 4010 Globex open and higher to 4019 by midnight. A surge to 4023 later extended to attack 4030 into Thu open, and then fresh highs to 4034 post-open. Reversing down sharply to fresh lows into the noon hour at 3974 recovered almost entirely up to 4028.
Overnight price points : Already reacting down into Thu's close quickly extended down to 4011 into the Globex open. Its consolidation around the bias-down signal broke lower into Europe's opens, sliding relentlessly to probe the bias-down target down to 3991 -- retracing a very important support that I describe below.
Catalysts : Pre-open (PCE) AND post-open econs, Earnings ongoing, holiday-shortened week, Russia invasion rumblings, UK Brexit deal.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Pent-up accumulation, Friday Factors.
Their influences : More fresh lows isolated sellers by exiting timing windows back above prior lows, but still not triggered by recovering a prior high... Fri morning's bias influence tends to persist through the noon hour.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Yesterday failed again to trigger pent-up accumulation and reverse daily momentum up, instead neutralizing unfinished business above, and then failing to exit a timing window or to close above a prior high. Gapping up would have sufficed -- and still would -- but now the overnight slide back under the 4000 and 4006 makes that unlikely by being so much further away. Friday Factors are positioned to leverage a renewed bias-down that persists through the morning, whether only backing-and-filling or resuming the decline.
Alternative : Having said all that, the overnight slide to this point is still within corrective limits. The channel from yesterday's low that had broken higher is often retraced to its 3997 breakout, which the overnight slide just did. And the afternoon's 5-stage pattern that had stopped optimistically short of retracing its Stage-2 running correction? That's now compensated by retracing Stage-1's 3991 origin. Greeting 8:30's econ report back above 4000 and 4006 would be back in the orbit of yesterday's 4019 close, and attracted to filling its gap above.
Levels : UP: 4044, 4108, 4133... DOWN: 4001, 3968, 3945.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Already reacting down from 4034 into Thu's close quickly extended down to 4011 into the Globex open. Its consolidation through midnight broke lower into Europe's opens, sliding relentlessly to retrace Thu's 5-Stage origin at 3991.
New price points : The pre-open econ report's headlines reaction collapsed to 3963. Bouncing into the open has reversed down again from 3976 to 4023.
Catalysts : Pre-open (PCE) AND post-open econs, Earnings ongoing, holiday-shortened week, Russia invasion rumblings, UK Brexit deal.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN RENEWED... Friday Factors.
Their influences : Fri morning's bias influence tends to persist through the noon hour.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Next lower objective in-play at 3946 is being attacked, and not much further below while Friday Factors can keep the bias-down influential through the noon hour. Under 3945 could extend intraday to 3911.
Alternative : Aggressive Fri opens can be front-loaded, enticing weaker-handed reinforcements that push earlier trending to far to be maintained (if not also attractive for a reversal). Ranging sideways this afternoon is a possibility, depending on the Fri PM Drift setup. Exiting the bias window in rally mode would be credible for extending higher.
Levels : UP: 4044, 4108, 4133... DOWN: 4001, 3968, 3945.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

FRI P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3976, targeting 3988.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3960, targeting 3945.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.