Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's market was range bound without any of the week's earlier volatility catalysts. Range bound, but still choppy, resisted by 2793.00-2794.00. An overnight swing down to 2781.75 was nevertheless contained within Wednesday's range, which contained Thursday morning's swing down to 2783.50. The afternoon's swing was even narrower, although the last 3:37-3:52 Position-squaring window collapsed momentarily to pierce the morning's lows at 2782.75. Gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory suggests that weak hands are bearish, meaning strong hands are bulls. Not quite a buy signal, but reinforcing an immediately bullish move Friday. The narrowing extended range has limited predictive value otherwise. Overnight action's new info... Immediately bullish moves don't get much more immediate than this. Thursday's late dip had bounced 6 points through the close to prove its weak-handed sponsorship. Globex immediately dipped back down to attack the late intraday low to within 1 tick, but no lower, and immediately began recovering. Thursday's highs were soon probed up to 2795.50, and then to 2798.50, hovering there through midnight. Another push higher to 2802.50 just after Europe's opens immediately began hovering there, too. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) March is coming in like a lion, and that's not just a favorable comparison to yesterday's inside day. The post-close Market Tour pointed out that with Thursday's narrowing range behind, and weekend illiquidity ahead, credible trending would have to appear sooner rather than later Friday. Based on the overnight levels of influential resistance, the pattern's next higher objective would neutralize the outstanding gap back up to Monday's 2808.00 open. One challenge in this setup will be in attracting post-open reinforcements, which is hardly assured after having trended relentlessly overnight. That resolution will then be influenced by Friday Factors, which help the open's bias to persist through the noon hour. Bias-up seems very likely to trigger, but not necessarily bias-up renewed. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2796.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2798.00 bias-up target at 10:15 or to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2800.50 would be likely to exceed 2798.00 at 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal.

Monday's gap filled. Is that all? Monday's 2707.75 opening print was above all other highs in trend. If not extended, it would require being filled from below. Not arbitrarily, but after first dipping to test "lower prior highs." Those lower prior highs have been tested since then, until last night's rally greeted today's open at 2803.50. Post-open action extended higher relentlessly to 2808.25, neutralizing the "unfinished business" at 2707.75. Some resistance there was likely, although not necessary, and not necessarily substantial. But resistance there has pushed price down sharply to 2794.50.

While there is no longer unfinished business above, there is on requirement that neutralizing it now launches a new downleg. There's also no requirement to extend higher, whether for a corrective bounce to 2803.50, or back to Monday's highs up to 2812.50 or even to 2817.50.

Today's sentiment can shift 180 degrees, multiple times. The only likelihood against reversing down would not come until this afternoon, if its bias environment were exited above the noon hour highs. The session otherwise remains vulnerable to probing lower lows.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2793.25 2793.50 ...would target 2800.25 2800.50 Bias-down: under 2786.25 2786.75 ...would target 2779.75 2780.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open collapse holds the gap. "Unfinished business" has been outstanding all week back up to Monday's 2807.75 opening gap. No trend reversal would be very credible without first neutralizing the attraction above. Neutralizing the attraction above wouldn't require reversing down. The gap was filled soon after today's open. Resistance there was likely to react down. A reaction down still could recover to resume rallying up to 2812.50 or 2817.50. The gap-fill's reaction down wasn't interested in higher attractions. Trending back down through the bias environment reached its first support at 2796.00, whose influence caused a 45-minute consolidation. Resolving down soon reached its next support at 2787.50 -- the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the structure containing yesterday's cash session close. Its influence had more intent, reversing price up immediately and through the noon hour.

Extending to 2798.25 easily triggered this afternoon's 2793.50 bias-up signal. Its 2800.50 bias-up target is in-play. Fresh highs above the bounce's pre-1:20 high haven't yet printed to confirm, but hovering there still suggests the uptrend remains intact. However, back under 2794.00 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Fridays are notorious for expending their influence in the morning. Whatever it accomplishes, or doesn't accomplish, often creates the session's extreme. This morning's reaction down tested yesterday's close, but hadn't quite rejected it by noon when the bias environment had finished lapsing. Another downleg can't be dismissed, whether or not preceded by 2800.50.

Thursday night's relentless rally had originated from its open retesting the 2782.75 low. Already having rallied 20 points to 2803.00, a last-minute surge through the open extended to neutralize the "unfinished business" back to Monday's 2807.75 opening gap. Some resistance was expected, but not necessarily substantial. That didn't prevent collapsing 20 points to essentially fill the gap back to Friday's closes. That was the morning. As with most Friday mornings, its effort tends to end there. In fact, the balance of the session repeated the overnight pattern of simply rallying relentlessly. And as with most Friday afternoons, exiting the bias environment above its noon hour high effectively marginalized sellers for the day. Not as reliably or productively as if also exiting the bias environment at fresh session highs, but reversing down would not be done by strong-handed sponsorship, if at all. Friday morning's 2808.25 high was attacked to 2807.00 before closing at 2804.50. Friday's close is a new recovery high close, but still under prior sessions' intraday highs, which would otherwise require another eventual new recovery high close. So, reversing down immediately would leave no unfinished business above. Slightly likelier than reversing down immediately is to first extend higher. Stopping pessimistically short of the morning's high Friday afternoon suggests probing higher anyway. That's likely either to attack last Monday's 2814.00 high to 2812.50, or probing it up to 2817.50. Slightly less likely is to reverse down immediately, attracted initially to Friday's low where the delayed recovery didn't isolate the post-open low to the bias environment. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US FOR SATURDAY REVIEW AT 9:30 AM ET.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2809.50 2809.75 ...would target 2817.25 2817.50 Bias-down: under 2798.75 2799.25 ...would target 2791.75 2792.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.