Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 03-03-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post Sorry, technical error today...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Overnight weakness had extended post-open to trigger Thursday's 2389.25 bias-down signal. Failing to limit a temporary pullback to 2387.25 had put into play lower objectives. Opportunities to negate the extension failed, the last being a surge to 2388.00 that only stretched the rubber band for a 10-point drop to 2378.00 at the close. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's last drop to 2378.00 was initially consolidated into a Descending Triangle. Its eventual break fell relentlessly until touching 2373.75. Bouncing less than 3 points was retraced entirely, but the low's retest reacted up to attack 2379.00. If, then... Overnight lows have at least touched the upper-end of the next lower objective in-play at 2372.25-2373.75. If a shallow pre-open bounce from its test proves premature, then resolving down could hold the objective's lower-end. And extending deeper would next target "lower prior highs" at 2368.50 or 2364.00. A bigger pre-open bounce that greets the open in positive territory could isolate the probe to the overnight, and trend higher through the morning. This being a Friday, the morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2376.00 would be likely to trigger the 2378.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2383.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Weak attempt to isolate sellers has marginalized buyers. Probing lower overnight at least touched the upper-end of the 2372.25-2373.75 objective. This created an opportunity to reverse momentum up. But the open needed to have recovered already back into Thursday's range.

Isolating sellers to the overnight that way would have allowed a rally this morning. Not trying to isolate sellers still could have rallied, perhaps by holding a test of the bias-down signal.

But trying to isolate sellers and failing has only marginalized buyers. The open's blip-up to resistance at 2181.50 resolved down to test the 2378.50 bias-down signal. The grace period it triggered resolved down to attack the overnight low. Now another bounce is starting to resolve down. The 2372.25-2373.75 objective's lower-end is also this morning's bias-down target. Lower objectives would be put into play at 2368.50 and 2364.00 if the bias-down target fails to hold.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2382.25 2381.50 ...would target  2388.00  2387.25 Bias-down: under  2375.75  2375.00 ...would target  2369.25 2368.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour bounce fizzles. This morning's 2378.50 bias-down triggered late, but it triggered. Its 2372.25 bias-down target was attacked to within 6 ticks, but it became "unfinished business below." Bouncing into and out of the noon hour got a boost from Yellen's remarks. A spike down to 2376.00 blipped-back up immediately to touch 2381.00. But the blip-up has been retraced entirely. It's too late to trigger bias-down under 2375.00. Probing under it during the no-bias environment isn't likely. But it's possible, and its "no-bias trending" and required to recover, which would not be inappropriate since fresh lows are likely to recovery anyway.

Friday Factors helped to set a floor Friday morning. The open's 3-point surge to 2282.00 was reversed by a 7-1./2 point plunge that attacked overnight lows to within 2 ticks. We know that recovering from a probe under the overnight low would form a more credible bottom. But that didn't entice Friday's fickle sponsorship to maintain control. The morning's 2372.25 late bias-down target became "unfinished business below." Recovering to within 2 points of the open's 2282.00 high suddenly found great volatility between 2276.00-2281.00. But the overnight and post-open decline's never resumed. The balance of the session blipped-up to and slightly through 2281.00, where the session closed. I describe in the Market Wrap video why the pattern suggests that even the most bullish resolution will likely be preceded by a fresh low. That fresh low may be isolated to the overnight. It could take longer if the 2372.25 bias-down target's delay has made 2368.50 or 2364.00 likely, too. Of course, gapping up Monday above 2288.25 would suggest new sponsorship has arrived already. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Join us for this weekend's Saturday Review at 9:30am ET in the chaRTroom. Reminder links will be sent early-morning.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2383.75 2383.00 ...would target  2388.75  2388.25 Bias-down: under  2375.50  2375.00 ...would target 2369.25  2368.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.