Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's late collapse from 2605.00 had extended through the weekend to gap down Sunday night and test 2445.00. But that ended immediately and recovered to greet Monday's open in positive territory. Not already trending down at the open was likely to rally by default. So a brief pullback to Friday's 2532.00 cash session close ended immediately and recovered to a very late attack on 2622.00. No unfinished business was left outstanding.. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Flat-to-higher ranging through the Globex open extended Monday's recovery to slightly higher highs at 2631.50. But a lack of momentum didn't protect against reversing down to 2595.00 through midnight. The repricing helped and it was all recovered through Europe's opens to attack 2636.00. But momentum disappeared again above yesterday's highs and another reversal into negative territory is testing 2601.00 as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) REMINDER: BIAS SIGNAL BASICS WORKSHOP TODAY 5:15 PM ET... Monday's 2611.00-2614.50 close was overlapping Thursday's 2609.00-2612.00 close, the prior high's close. No traction was gained from the intraday recovery's momentum. No higher target was put into play, and the overnight ranging reflects this. By the same token, momentum didn't reverse down. Potential remained alive for testing the room for noise above Thursday's 2626.00-2634.50 highs at 2638.00-2643.00. Gapping up into the test would make the rally likelier to extend and the resistance less likely to hold. There's still time to greet the open in rally mode, or at least a fresh high. But it's probably too late for fresh highs to be assured of extending higher intraday. Reversing down at anytime from anywhere would still have room down to 2574.00-2579.00 before beginning to suggest a deeper pullback or new downleg is underway. This is the quarter's last day, with stocks on the objective-subjective cusp between being down sharply and potentially reversing, so trending intraday will be difficult to start. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open between 2611.00-2620.75 would be unlikely to trigger either bias signal. Exiting the open above 2633.00 would be likely to trigger the 2626.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2590.75 would be likely to trigger the 2601.50 bias-down signal.

Pre-open dip was Too Late to Break. Ranging choppily overnight had reversed a fresh high at 2631.50 down to 2595.00, and still recovered to a fresher high at 2635.75. Which also reversed to a fresher low at 2572.50. This formed the setup described during the Market Tour. A breakout 60-90 minutes before the open tends to be "too late to break." At least the breakout's origin is likely to be retraced, if not also reversed in the opposite direction. Added to this particular instance, the breakout tested the 2574.00-2579.00 pullback limit. And we already discussed how this being quarter-end makes trending attempts likely to be retraced. So, the too-late breakout reacted up to 2605.50. Still too shallow to reverse the trend back up, but a post-open attempt to resume the breakout became trapped by the 4-minute test of its bounce limit. Now post-open tests of BOTH bias-down parameters have been trapped by the 10:15 timing window. This is a no-bias environment, with offsetting tests of BOTH bias-up parameters in-play at 2626.75 (just met) and 2641.00. The higher objective isn't required, but still very likely to be tested, although nothing requires a straight path higher.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2647.00 2634.00 ...would target 2661.00 2648.00 Bias-down: under 2614.50 2601.50 ...would target 2601.00 2588.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

REMINDER: BIAS BASICS WORKSHOP AT 5:15 ET.

Rejecting the combined tests of both bias-down parameters this morning had put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. Only the bias-up signal was required, but very often the bias-up target is met anyway, too. Not today. Both the test and retest of this morning's 2626.75 bias-up signal up to 2629.00 reacted down sharply. The first reaction attacked 2606.00 before the morning no-bias environment was even within view of lapsing. The second reaction down collapsed through the noon hour to attack 2575.25 as the afternoon bias environment was being entered. No lower low is required, but the 2601.50 bias-down signal should define the window's upper-end if tested. This is still quarter-end -- all day long -- so breaking beyond the range is no easier or likelier. But trending today would be difficult to stop once started, and another fresh low would start being credible for attacking yesterday's post-open lows down to 2550.50.

REMINDER: BIAS BASICS WORKSHOP AT 5:15 ET IN THE CHARTROOM...

Tuesday was the quarter's last session, and more cross currents than usual were in-play. More, and more substantial. Not only were stocks generally down for the quarter, they were down big. Not only had recent price action bounced, its bounce is being labeled as a "bull market." Quarterly earnings disasters just ahead may be an unknown but not a surprise, not like the actual earnings numbers. ADP, Jobless Claims, and monthly payrolls complete the week. Those unknowns weren't even all of the session's extraordinary portfolio rebalancing. Rather than any one theme being a catalyst for trending, the overwhelming compilation squelched sponsorship from being productive. So, the choppy overnight range foreshadowed more of the same coming for Tuesday. A pre-open probe to fresh lows at 2572.50 came too late to break, forming a setup that reverses at least back into the range. Extending back above Monday's highs up to 2629.00 stopped short of probing the 2635.75 overnight highs. Exiting the morning bias environment fell aggressively back to and eventually through overnight lows down to 2557.50. Ultimately breaking lower from fresh overnight highs still didn't qualify for reversing the trend down. The door to probing fresh highs remains open, and likely to develop if not yet trending down into Wednesday's open. But probing fresh highs intraday remains vulnerable to being rejected before the close. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2601.00 2588.00 ...would target 2624.00 2611.00 Bias-down: under 2568.00 2555.00 ...would target 2546.00 2533.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.