Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) A modest overnight rally was supercharged by a GDP miss and GILD hit. Surging 45 points to attack 2927.00 was corrected through the open, then extended up to 2944.50 through the noon hour. Correcting again through the FOMC policy statement was recovered up to 2947.25 through Fed Chair Powell's Q&A. A last-minute reaction down closed the cash session 1 tick under the bear rally's next higher 2930.00-2934.00 target. The afternoon's 2959.50 bias-up target was left outstanding.. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's last-minute drop? The one that converted a test of 2947.00 into a close just under 2930.00? It was recovered before the Globex open. Recovered, and probed, considerably, attacking 2960.00. That seems to reject the last-minute drop as noise... seems to. Except, the first Globex leg trended back down to attack 2932.00. And although its recovery probed even higher up to 2965.00 soon after midnight, that has also evaporated. Trending back down through Europe's opens has now broken lower to probe yesterday's late drop down to 2927.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Recovering yesterday's last-minute drop was likely since it originated too late for strong-handed sponsorship. Probing higher overnight has to stand on its own merits. And the overnight highs aren't standing up very well. Failing to exploit a second consecutive opportunity for closing above 2930.00-2934.00 (now requiring a close above Wednesday's 2947.25) could be as bearish as recent attempts to close above 2825.00-2827.00. Or more so, since that was the likelier bear market rally target and probing higher is still within the room for noise. But that noise will become the next upleg's inflection point or launching pad, if not reversed down quickly. FOMC reactions are often retraced within 3 sessions, so a quick dip could be bullish for not weighing down higher highs with ballast. Now the open is threatening both a bearish Globex-flip and bearish Isolation setup, and neither needs to trigger to make trending likely (watch the Tour for explanation). First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2925.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2920.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2934.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2943.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2950.50 would be likely to trigger the 2943.00 bias-up signal

And bearish setups triggered. Probing overnight beyond the prior session's intraday range opens the door to several setups. A potentially bullish setup tried forming last night, called a "new Globex trend extreme," but there was no price complexity above the first overnight high. Bearish setups had more luck. A bearish Isolation setup formed by spending all of the first 15 minutes in negative territory under yesterday's 2929.75 cash session close. Now maintaining yesterday's range could target last Tuesday's 2717.00 low. A bearish Globex-flip setup formed by exiting the first 15 minutes under the 2946.00 earlier Globex low. This morning should be biased downward. Bounces should fail and lows should be probed.

Notice that both setups triggered easily. In other words, a lot of selling pressure has been expended already. That might limit the available near-term selling pressure, so even a slightly lower low could fulfill the bearish setups. Similarly, a bigger corrective bounce could develop first, albeit likely doomed to failure for being attempted during this bearish context.

Back above the 2920.50-2922.50 Gap-to-Gap retrace (being attacked now) would start to be a bigger bounce. Not yet probing fresh lows by noon would undermine the bearish setups, and could start probing back into the overnight range.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2911.50 2903.00 ...would target 2829.00 2920.50 Bias-down: under 2889.50 2881.00 ...would target 2874.50 2866.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bearish undercurrents. This morning's bias environment began lapsing at the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} internal retracement of the morning's range, which was barely enough to fulfill the bearish Globex-flip setup. Fresh session lows through the bias environment exit would be optimal. In fact, that was done by suddenly sliding into the noon hour. Maintaining the morning's bearish posture this afternoon would suggest the Globex-flip will also influence tomorrow morning's bias environment bearishly. This morning also remained within yesterday's range. This has continued to qualify the bearish Isolation setup. Often it will start being productive by trending down during the afternoon. That would help to confirm its objective is in-play, retracing last Tuesday's 2717.00 low. Another setup may be playing out, by probing the open's low during this morning's bias environment and also probing the bias environment during the noon hour. I'm allowing yesterday's odd final minutes to qualify for a session-long decline setup, triggered by exiting today's open under yesterday afternoon's low. At least one more timing window would probe a prior timing window's low.

These three contextual clues don't overrule bullish behavior. But bullish behavior in this bearish context must be overwhelmingly bullish, so we'll want to be aware of its potential triggers. That might have been a bias-up , but this afternoon's bias environment is no-bias. No-bias trending above 2903.50 could extend higher, but the trend otherwise remains down.

Rallying overnight to new recovery highs at 2965.00 had already reversed sharply to gap down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon's 2923.00 low. Extending down to 2892.00 during the first 15 minutes was maintained to trigger bias-down, which eventually extended to fresh lows at 2883.00 during the noon hour. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways attacking 2902.00 and 2910.00. Perhaps the paralyzed ranging was from anticipation for post-close earnings. An initially favorable reaction was reversed through the close to fresh lows at 2878.00. So many setups were in-play Thursday. Exciting, but also potentially confusing. Let's take them individually:

The overnight probe above 2930.00-2934.00 is a separate timing window than Wednesday's intraday probe. Both were rejected through the close, similar to previously rejecting probes above 282500-2827.00. Initial weakness Friday would be credible for extending down into and possibly out of the weekend. No P.M. traction was gained either way, so trending Friday morning will require gapping open beyond Thursday afternoon's 2886.00-2992.00 core range. Thursday morning already fulfilled the bearish Globex-flip setup. Remaining under pressure during the afternoon suggests that Friday morning will also trend down. The bearish Isolation setup often influences the afternoon. Its reward is to retrace the leg whose overnight extreme was isolated -- that's last week's 2717.00 low. I'm reluctant to consider post-close price action as part of the session's final timing window. But Thursday's post-close drop would fulfill the session-long decline setup that otherwise began auspiciously. So, what? Session-long setups tend to influence the following morning. That's what. Thursday's 2892.00 low reacted to the 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement between Tue-Wed. Thursday's post-close drop ended at the same gap's 2878.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement. There's no bullish reason for the second lower level's test.

If you want to learn my setups, then you loved Thursday. And you trudged your way through the descriptions above. TL;DR -- multiple bearish influences are greeting the Friday Factors. Maintaining a gap up in this context would likely squeeze higher into the weekend. Gapping down could end the day sharply lower. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2920.25 2911.75 ...would target 2932.75 2925.25 Bias-down: under 2889.50 2881.00 ...would target 2869.00 2860.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.