Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... It was appropriate for Wednesday's choppy ranging to be accompanied by two noN-bias signals. That bias parameter reflects the maximum effort applied without creating any consequence. The gap down 1 point under Tuesday morning's 2856.50 low was actually a recovery from the overnight low's attack on 2848.00. The reward for opening back above Tuesday's low was a probe of Tuesday's close by 3 points up to 2869.00. But only briefly. The balance of the session would range choppily in negative territory, forming "ineffectual pessimism." The afternoon's FOMC Minutes reaction held the range, closing 1 point above Tuesday morning's 2856.50 low. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday's late reaction down to 2857.50 extended lower into and out of the Globex open. Tuesday night's low was probed down to 2843.50 well before midnight. A 6-point bounce was done well before midnight, too. That left plenty of time for the decline to resume and to extend lower through Europe's opens. Another 6-point bounce resolved down again, extending down to 2825.25, which is now reacting up 9 points. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Wednesday's sideways range was choppy enough that breaking it Thursday would still be credible for extending in that direction. A breakout delayed until Friday would be less credible for trending in that direction, as the 3-day weekend approaches. Having broken under multiple relevant supports since yesterday's close, now the question is whether the overnight drop has already expended that selling pressure -- or if it can attract intraday reinforcements. Trending down relentlessly overnight already evens the odds of attracting counter-trend sponsorship. The 2825.25 low is the outstanding room for noise under Monday's low that its drop had avoided, and its break would target the pivotal 2813.00-2819.00 range. Regardless of its direction, the outcome could extend into Friday afternoon. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2843.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2847.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

(Considerably). This morning's 2830.75 sell signal was established well before the open, and repeatedly tested. Its post-open break was quickly confirmed under 2828.00. Their reward was soon met upon touching the critical 2813.00-2817.00 range. And the relentless overnight trending confirmed it attracted reinforcements -- not counter-trend sponsorship.

That was essentially the first 15 minutes of volatility, which started to form an anchor. Reacting up sharply to 2825.25 was reversed to fresh lows down to 2815.25. That was essentially the first 45 minutes which confirmed the anchor. Bounces aren't unlikely, but they're likely to fail.

Speaking of which... At least 1-minute RSI diverged positively at the low's retest. That vulnerability was exploited by a bigger bounce up to 2828.00. Its reaction back down to 2818.50 is confirming the anchor's influence. Recovering 2828.00 can now signal the anchor has been neutralized. Recall the 2825.25-2828.00 range was most recently support. Now it is resistance. And testing its resistance is reacting down. This timing is a paradigm shift, coming after Wednesday ahead of a 3-day weekend. Fresh lows remain likely, if not also a substantial break under 2813.00-2817.00. Back above 2828.00 could at least neutralize the downside, but wouldn't necessarily point higher.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2819.00 2819.50 ...would target 2824.75 2825.25 Bias-down: under 2810.75 2811.50 ...would target 2804.25 2805.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Or, not. Trending down through the noon hour to fresh lows stopped 6 ticks short of this afternoon's 2805.50 bias-down target. Its 2811.50 bias-down signal still triggered cleanly. The bias-down target is in-play, and would become "unfinished business" if not met this afternoon. Bouncing back up to the 2811.50 bias-down signal came 1 minute too late to invoke the grace period. Bouncing back up also extended to 2814.50, testing a buy signal there. Its resistance pushed back to within 1 tick of the 2811.50 bias-down signal at 1:30. Recovering the cleanly triggered bias-down signal at 1:30 does invalidate the 1:20 signal. Cleanly triggered signals should be invalidated cleanly. This was invalidated by a 1-tick difference, not cleanly.

I'm giving the bias-down a benefit of the doubt. Its target remains in-play, as does the session's decline. I'm also being sensitive to the fast-approaching 3-day holiday weekend -- it's likely that some degree of this morning's selling pressure was reacting to that impending illiquidity and collapsing prices. So, I'm also giving the buy signal a benefit of the doubt, and monitoring for its failure to potentially resume the decline.

Wide ranging sessions offer so many great opportunities to see the methodology's many insights and influences. This video catches several key intraday developments in real-time to help us all along the learning curve. Please watch in its entirety, and provide comments for discussion... Meanwhile, the substantial trending, and maintained support breaks, are unusual two days before a 3-day holiday weekend. Also unusual: the same aggressive price action one day before a 3-day holiday weekend. By the way, two back-to-back unusual sessions would be a pattern. How strong will be the sponsorship that works against an attempt to repeat Thursday's decline... Closing above the relevant 2813.00-2817.00 range could be invalidated by gapping open Friday back under the range. Absorbing it, or not, would likely define the balance of the session. Meanwhile, already rallying into the open won't have any bigger predictive value. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2828.00 2828.50 ...would target 2835.25 2835.75 Bias-down: under 2815.75 2816.50 ...would target 2807.75 2808.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.